Theta Research Library
Research built around decisions
Company theses, scenario work, event scorecards, and supply-chain research from the same system that powers the Theta Max Decision Desk.
Mega-Cap AI Capex Rose, but the Market Split the Beneficiaries
Meta raised the lower end of 2026 capex guidance to $130B-$145B. META fell 7.95% in the first full session after the report while NVDA gained 2.65% and MU gained 18.36%, supporting the semiconductor demand read-through but raising the conversion bar for Meta.
July FOMC: A Hold With a Hawkish Vote Split
The Fed held its target range at 3.50%-3.75%, but three officials preferred a 25-basis-point hike and Chair Kevin Warsh offered no explicit cut path. APLD fell 12.77% on Fed day and rebounded 20.46% the next session; the whipsaw does not justify an APLD thesis change.
Starship Flight 13: Ship Objectives Cleared, Booster Recovery Did Not
Flight 13 deployed 20 Starlink V3 test satellites, completed an in-space Raptor relight, and ended with an intact ship splashdown after a one-day weather scrub. All eight predictions are resolved at an average Brier score of 0.340; the first post-flight session sent SPCX down 1.36% and RKLB up 4.74%.
VeriSign Q2 2026: Domain Growth Won, Capital Return Surprised
VeriSign's domain base reached 179.1M, preliminary renewal held at 75.2%, and management raised full-year guidance. Eight of ten probability-side calls were directionally correct, but the low-probability buyback-authorization increase drove the largest calibration miss; average Brier was 0.177.
TSMC June 2026: The Foundry Read Was Right, the Tape Was Not
TSMC's June monthly print (+6.2% MoM, +67.9% YoY; H1 +35.6%) landed in the bullish AI/HPC regime our pre-event matrix leaned toward at 55/45. The demand mechanism confirmed cleanly, yet NVDA closed down ~2% the same day on rate and custom-silicon pressure. The lesson is a coincident-indicator decoupling: a supportive foundry data point does not buy same-day upside when macro owns the tape. Average Brier 0.203.
HBM Value Chain Pass-Through: Mapping Article 2 Onto Names
Article 3 of the Micron SCA series. Sector pass-through along the HBM value chain, organized along Article 2's three stress tests (ASIC / algorithm / topology). Draft v1: opening + Ch 2 (accelerator layer: NVDA, AMD, AVGO, MRVL). Ch 3-5 pending.
Nebius Q1 2026: The Margin Print That Broke the CoreWeave Template
Nebius delivered $399M Q1 revenue (+684% YoY, narrowly missing the strict $400M bull trigger) but compensated with a 32% group adj. EBITDA margin and a 45% AI segment margin — sharper-than-modeled operating leverage. Stock gapped to ATH $233.73 (+15%), reversing the CRWV 'beat-then-sell' template. We score 9 pre-event predictions (avg Brier 0.241) and recommend retiring the $135 base case.
CoreWeave Q1 2026: Beat the Numbers, Lost the Narrative
CoreWeave beat Q1 consensus by 5.5% and reported $99.4B RPO, but stock fell 11.68% on disappointing Q2 guidance. We score 10 pre-event predictions (avg Brier 0.152), analyze the guidance-driven selloff, and identify thesis updates for CRWV, APLD, and NBIS.
Micron at 5.5x Forward P/E: Cycle Trap or Generational Buy?
Micron dropped 32% in 12 days while posting the best quarter in company history. We dissect three fear catalysts, reconstruct actual P/E data from three historical cycle peaks, and build a verification framework for the central question: is the E about to collapse?
NVDA: AI Infrastructure Dominance and the Compute Bottleneck
NVIDIA's data center segment continues to benefit from insatiable AI compute demand. We model three scenarios around supply chain constraints, competitive dynamics from AMD/custom silicon, and the HBM supply bottleneck.
TSM: CoWoS Capacity as the AI Enabler
TSMC's advanced packaging (CoWoS) is the critical bottleneck for AI chip production. We analyze capacity expansion plans and revenue implications.
AI Semiconductor Supply Chain: Mapping Critical Dependencies
A comprehensive mapping of the AI semiconductor supply chain, identifying single points of failure and geopolitical risk concentrations.
Volatility Regime Framework for Semiconductor Options
A quantitative framework for identifying volatility regimes in semiconductor names and optimizing options strategy selection.