Theta Research Library
Research built around decisions
Company theses, scenario work, event scorecards, and supply-chain research from the same system that powers the Theta Max Decision Desk.
CrowdStrike Fal.Con 2026: Long-Term ARR Targets Move Forward
CrowdStrike paired a broad AI-security launch slate with initial FY2028 net-new ARR guidance and accelerated $10B/$20B ARR milestones, but did not supply Charlotte-specific monetization, an AWS expansion, or an XM Cyber integration timeline.
Amphenol's Split Is Plumbing. Only the Denominator Moved.
Amphenol distributed the additional shares on September 2, 2026 at exactly the declared two-for-one ratio, with no amendment to the August 6 8-K. The thesis is unchanged: a split moves no earnings, no cash flow, no ownership, and by S&P's own methodology no index weight. The one live risk is basis drift across the September 3 ex-distribution date, where vendors were already quoting Amphenol on two different share bases within the same session.
Mega-Cap AI Capex Rose, but the Market Split the Beneficiaries
Meta raised the lower end of 2026 capex guidance to $130B-$145B. META fell 7.95% in the first full session after the report while NVDA gained 2.65% and MU gained 18.36%, supporting the semiconductor demand read-through but raising the conversion bar for Meta.
July FOMC: A Hold With a Hawkish Vote Split
The Fed held its target range at 3.50%-3.75%, but three officials preferred a 25-basis-point hike and Chair Kevin Warsh offered no explicit cut path. APLD fell 12.77% on Fed day and rebounded 20.46% the next session; the whipsaw does not justify an APLD thesis change.
Starship Flight 13: Ship Objectives Cleared, Booster Recovery Did Not
Flight 13 deployed 20 Starlink V3 test satellites, completed an in-space Raptor relight, and ended with an intact ship splashdown after a one-day weather scrub. All eight predictions are resolved at an average Brier score of 0.340; the first post-flight session sent SPCX down 1.36% and RKLB up 4.74%.
VeriSign Q2 2026: Domain Growth Won, Capital Return Surprised
VeriSign's domain base reached 179.1M, preliminary renewal held at 75.2%, and management raised full-year guidance. Eight of ten probability-side calls were directionally correct, but the low-probability buyback-authorization increase drove the largest calibration miss; average Brier was 0.177.
TSMC June 2026: The Foundry Read Was Right, the Tape Was Not
TSMC's June monthly print (+6.2% MoM, +67.9% YoY; H1 +35.6%) landed in the bullish AI/HPC regime our pre-event matrix leaned toward at 55/45. The demand mechanism confirmed cleanly, yet NVDA closed down ~2% the same day on rate and custom-silicon pressure. The lesson is a coincident-indicator decoupling: a supportive foundry data point does not buy same-day upside when macro owns the tape. Average Brier 0.203.
HBM Value Chain Pass-Through: Mapping Article 2 Onto Names
Article 3 of the Micron SCA series. Sector pass-through along the HBM value chain, organized along Article 2's three stress tests (ASIC / algorithm / topology). Draft v1: opening + Ch 2 (accelerator layer: NVDA, AMD, AVGO, MRVL). Ch 3-5 pending.
Nebius Q1 2026: The Margin Print That Broke the CoreWeave Template
Nebius delivered $399M Q1 revenue (+684% YoY, narrowly missing the strict $400M bull trigger) but compensated with a 32% group adj. EBITDA margin and a 45% AI segment margin — sharper-than-modeled operating leverage. Stock gapped to ATH $233.73 (+15%), reversing the CRWV 'beat-then-sell' template. We score 9 pre-event predictions (avg Brier 0.241) and recommend retiring the $135 base case.
CoreWeave Q1 2026: Beat the Numbers, Lost the Narrative
CoreWeave beat Q1 consensus by 5.5% and reported $99.4B RPO, but stock fell 11.68% on disappointing Q2 guidance. We score 10 pre-event predictions (avg Brier 0.152), analyze the guidance-driven selloff, and identify thesis updates for CRWV, APLD, and NBIS.
Micron at 5.5x Forward P/E: Cycle Trap or Generational Buy?
Micron dropped 32% in 12 days while posting the best quarter in company history. We dissect three fear catalysts, reconstruct actual P/E data from three historical cycle peaks, and build a verification framework for the central question: is the E about to collapse?
NVDA: AI Infrastructure Dominance and the Compute Bottleneck
NVIDIA's data center segment continues to benefit from insatiable AI compute demand. We model three scenarios around supply chain constraints, competitive dynamics from AMD/custom silicon, and the HBM supply bottleneck.
TSM: CoWoS Capacity as the AI Enabler
TSMC's advanced packaging (CoWoS) is the critical bottleneck for AI chip production. We analyze capacity expansion plans and revenue implications.
AI Semiconductor Supply Chain: Mapping Critical Dependencies
A comprehensive mapping of the AI semiconductor supply chain, identifying single points of failure and geopolitical risk concentrations.
Volatility Regime Framework for Semiconductor Options
A quantitative framework for identifying volatility regimes in semiconductor names and optimizing options strategy selection.