How it works

The buy-side decision framework — rebuilt in full.A thin wrapper over a base-model API will never earn you alpha.

Only a team that has truly worked on the buy-side can rebuild a real investment-research framework. Theta’s vision is to bring that system — with the help of agents — to individual investors. We rebuilt the same disciplined loop an institutional research desk runs to hold a position, using deep learning and reinforcement learning to run coverage, underwriting, risk, and post-mortem across the full chain — and now it runs on your portfolio, end to end.

The process behind every position
LIVE
Overnight
Pre-market
Intraday
Close
Evening

the desk never closes — no schedule exposed here

5-stageclosed loop
24/5coverage
10000+signals tracked daily
78%prediction win rate
≈430%annualized
Coverage
Ledger
Underwriting
Committee
Output
1Coverage
every name and its supply chain, watched around the clock
Coverage
Filings
Coverage
Earnings
Coverage
News & tape
Coverage
Events calendar
Coverage
Supply-chain
2Research ledger
Ledger
Research ledger — one governed work surface
Every name’s status lives in one place — nothing falls through, nothing is decided twice.
3Underwriting · independent research workstreams
Underwriting
Event analysis
Underwriting
Thesis refresh
Underwriting
Pre-event preview
Underwriting
Post-event scoring
Underwriting
Deep underwrite
Each workstream returns a drafted view to the ledger — a draft, never the final word.
4Investment committee
Committee
Investment committee
independent second sign-off
Investment-committee discipline — no thesis change lands without an experienced investor’s independent second sign-off. Nothing rests on a single opinion.
5Output
everything logged, traceable, and scored
Output
Audit trail
Output
Research files
Output
Briefings
Output
Performance attribution
Single source of truth

Every name, every call, every update — one governed ledger. No parallel tracks, no decisions in email threads.

Independent sign-off

The lead underwriter and an independent reviewer must agree before any thesis change is recorded. Two opinions, always.

Full audit trail

Every call is logged and scored against outcome. The desk grades itself — including the misses.

What you get on day one

Everything the desk already ships.

Run by buy-side investors, kept honest by machine learning — and shipping in production today.

Deep company research

Per-company thesis, scenario matrix, and financials validated against SEC filings — peer-reviewed before any conviction is recorded.

511 theses on file
Supply-chain graph

Every covered name mapped to its suppliers and customers across all 11 GICS sectors. Trace a shock from upstream directly to your position.

11 sectors mapped
Daily briefings

Premarket intelligence brief and postmarket recap — macro regime, sector moves, and thesis-relevant catalysts, delivered before and after every session.

Weekly portfolio review

End-of-week coverage recap: what moved, what the desk updated, and what requires a decision before next week’s open.

Event intelligence

Pre-event scenario matrices written before earnings, FOMC, and conferences. Post-event scoring grades the call on record.

Scored across 8+ events
Macro regime dashboard

Growth, rates, Fed policy, and risk-appetite indicators assembled into a live regime call. The backdrop the desk holds before every position decision.

Watchlist & catalyst alerts

Track the names you hold. When a thesis-critical catalyst hits a covered name on your watchlist, the desk surfaces it — so nothing slips between sessions.

Machine-learning calibration

Every call is scored against what actually happened, and our confidence is re-calibrated by machine learning — so the odds we quote are honest.

78% win rate
A human signs off

Built and run by buy-side investors. Every position change is approved by a person — never left to a black box.

What the desk produces for you

Four artifacts. Every decision covered.

Each output below is a direct product of one stage in the process above. The discipline doesn’t write stories — it runs a structured protocol and delivers the result.

Coverage → Underwrite

A shock three links upstream — traced to your position.

Every holding sits in a supply chain. The coverage desk maps it, watches it, and when something moves upstream the catalyst analyst runs the chain forward — and tells you whether your thesis still holds. This is the part a watchlist cannot do.

Live signal → thesis impact
TSMCCoWoS-LSK HynixHBM4NVDAyour holdingBase case intactthesis holds

TSMC locks >60% of 2026 CoWoS-L capacity for NVDA; SK Hynix secures ~70% of HBM4 for Vera Rubin

→ NVDA ships volume while GPU-only rivals stay supply-capped

→ Base case intact

Thesis holds
Committee

A position you actually understand — not a price target.

The lead underwriter and an independent reviewer must both sign off before a conviction update is written. You get three scenarios, the probability-weighted return, and the precise logic — so you always know why you hold what you hold.

Investment-committee discipline — no change to a thesis ships without an independent second sign-off.
NVDANVIDIA Corp.
Thesis snapshot · 2026-05-21
Strong Buy · 10/10
Bull
40%
$390+77%
Base
50%
$290+32%
Bear
10%
$180-18%
Probability-weighted return~ +45%
Exit trigger · written in advanceArmed

Trim NVDA if AMD MI450 shows training parity at >1GW scale by Q4 2026.

Thesis-critical catalystQ2 FY27 print · late Aug 2026
Status todayNot triggered
Position & risk

The hardest trade is the sell.

So the desk writes the exit before you are emotional — one specific, falsifiable trigger, not a vague stop-loss. When the world hits it, you already know what to do. When it doesn’t, you hold without second-guessing.

Attribution

Confidence is cheap. We grade ours.

We publish our real return — every drawdown included — and hold every call to what actually happened.

78%
prediction win rate
live track record
+216%
2026 YTD
time-weighted return
-18.6%
max drawdown
2026-03-30
0%+50%+100%+150%+200%-18.6%+216%JanMarMay6/15

2026 year-to-date · live strategy return (time-weighted, net of deposits and withdrawals)

See the whole loop on one real name.

Free, no card.