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For serious investors who think in systems.

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© 2026 theta.md

Theta Research provides research and analytics for informational purposes only. Nothing on this site is investment advice.

How it works

The buy-side decision framework — rebuilt in full.A thin wrapper over a base-model API will never earn you alpha.

Only a team that has truly worked on the buy-side can rebuild a real investment-research framework. Theta’s vision is to bring that system — with the help of agents — to individual investors. We rebuilt the same disciplined loop an institutional research desk runs to hold a position, using deep learning and reinforcement learning to run coverage, underwriting, risk, and post-mortem across the full chain — and now it runs on your portfolio, end to end.

The process behind every position
LIVE
Overnight
Pre-market
Intraday
Close
Evening

the desk never closes — no schedule exposed here

5-stageclosed loop
24/5coverage
10000+signals tracked daily
78%prediction win rate
≈430%annualized
Coverage
Ledger
Underwriting
Committee
Output
1 — Coverage
every name and its supply chain, watched around the clock
Coverage
Filings
Coverage
Earnings
Coverage
News & tape
Coverage
Events calendar
Coverage
Supply-chain
2 — Research ledger
Ledger
Research ledger — one governed work surface
Every name’s status lives in one place — nothing falls through, nothing is decided twice.
3 — Underwriting · independent research workstreams
Underwriting
Event analysis
Underwriting
Thesis refresh
Underwriting
Pre-event preview
Underwriting
Post-event scoring
Underwriting
Deep underwrite
Each workstream returns a drafted view to the ledger — a draft, never the final word.
4 — Investment committee
Committee
Investment committee
independent second sign-off
Investment-committee discipline — no thesis change lands without an experienced investor’s independent second sign-off. Nothing rests on a single opinion.
5 — Output
everything logged, traceable, and scored
Output
Audit trail
Output
Research files
Output
Briefings
Output
Performance attribution
► Single source of truth

Every name, every call, every update — one governed ledger. No parallel tracks, no decisions in email threads.

► Independent sign-off

The lead underwriter and an independent reviewer must agree before any thesis change is recorded. Two opinions, always.

► Full audit trail

Every call is logged and scored against outcome. The desk grades itself — including the misses.

What you get on day one

Everything the desk already ships.

Run by buy-side investors, kept honest by machine learning — and shipping in production today.

Deep company research

Per-company thesis, scenario matrix, and financials validated against SEC filings — peer-reviewed before any conviction is recorded.

511 theses on file
Supply-chain graph

Every covered name mapped to its suppliers and customers across all 11 GICS sectors. Trace a shock from upstream directly to your position.

11 sectors mapped
Daily briefings

Premarket intelligence brief and postmarket recap — macro regime, sector moves, and thesis-relevant catalysts, delivered before and after every session.

Weekly portfolio review

End-of-week coverage recap: what moved, what the desk updated, and what requires a decision before next week’s open.

Event intelligence

Pre-event scenario matrices written before earnings, FOMC, and conferences. Post-event scoring grades the call on record.

Scored across 8+ events
Macro regime dashboard

Growth, rates, Fed policy, and risk-appetite indicators assembled into a live regime call. The backdrop the desk holds before every position decision.

Watchlist & catalyst alerts

Track the names you hold. When a thesis-critical catalyst hits a covered name on your watchlist, the desk surfaces it — so nothing slips between sessions.

Machine-learning calibration

Every call is scored against what actually happened, and our confidence is re-calibrated by machine learning — so the odds we quote are honest.

78% win rate
A human signs off

Built and run by buy-side investors. Every position change is approved by a person — never left to a black box.

What the desk produces for you

Four artifacts. Every decision covered.

Each output below is a direct product of one stage in the process above. The discipline doesn’t write stories — it runs a structured protocol and delivers the result.

Coverage → Underwrite

A shock three links upstream — traced to your position.

Every holding sits in a supply chain. The coverage desk maps it, watches it, and when something moves upstream the catalyst analyst runs the chain forward — and tells you whether your thesis still holds. This is the part a watchlist cannot do.

Live signal → thesis impact
TSMCCoWoS-LSK HynixHBM4NVDAyour holdingBase case intactthesis holds

TSMC locks >60% of 2026 CoWoS-L capacity for NVDA; SK Hynix secures ~70% of HBM4 for Vera Rubin

→ NVDA ships volume while GPU-only rivals stay supply-capped

→ Base case intact

Thesis holds
Committee

A position you actually understand — not a price target.

The lead underwriter and an independent reviewer must both sign off before a conviction update is written. You get three scenarios, the probability-weighted return, and the precise logic — so you always know why you hold what you hold.

Investment-committee discipline — no change to a thesis ships without an independent second sign-off.
NVDANVIDIA Corp.
Thesis snapshot · 2026-05-21
Strong Buy · 10/10
Bull
40%
$390+77%
Base
50%
$290+32%
Bear
10%
$180-18%
Probability-weighted return~ +45%
Exit trigger · written in advanceArmed

Trim NVDA if AMD MI450 shows training parity at >1GW scale by Q4 2026.

Thesis-critical catalystQ2 FY27 print · late Aug 2026
Status todayNot triggered
Position & risk

The hardest trade is the sell.

So the desk writes the exit before you are emotional — one specific, falsifiable trigger, not a vague stop-loss. When the world hits it, you already know what to do. When it doesn’t, you hold without second-guessing.

Attribution

Confidence is cheap. We grade ours.

We publish our real return — every drawdown included — and hold every call to what actually happened.

78%
prediction win rate
live track record
+216%
2026 YTD
time-weighted return
-18.6%
max drawdown
2026-03-30
0%+50%+100%+150%+200%-18.6%+216%JanMarMay6/15

2026 year-to-date · live strategy return (time-weighted, net of deposits and withdrawals)

See the whole loop on one real name.

Free, no card.

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