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Supply chain dependency graph
Theta Research

Alpha lives in the edges.Trade the structure, not the noise.

Signals as of May 1, 2026
[SNDK]SanDisk Q3 revenue $5.95B shatters $4.73B consensus (+251% YoY), but stock -6...·[NVDA]NVIDIA -4.63% as all four hyperscalers emphasize internal AI chips (TPU, Trai...·[VRT]Vertiv Q1 revenue $2.65B (+30%), raised FY2026 EPS guidance to $6.35 — $15B b...·[PWR]Quanta Services Q1 record: $7.87B revenue (+26%), adj EPS $2.68, record $48.5...·[AMD]AMD +5.16% to $354 on hyperscaler capex wave — now 7% above bull target as cu...·[LITE]Lumentum +5.63% to $816 — Northland raises PT to $1,000, optical products boo...·[MRVL]Marvell +5.48% to $165 — above bull target ($160) on Google TPU work and NVID...·[GEV]GE Vernova Q1 orders surge 71% to $18.3B, gas turbine backlog hits 100GW — at...·[CRDO]Credo Technology +4.23% to $107 — DustPhotonics acquisition and TSMC symposiu...·[INTC]Intel at $94.48 — at bull target ($95) after Google AI foundry deal reports a...·[ASE]ASE raises 2026 LEAP revenue outlook above $3.5B (from $3.2B), Q1 ATM revenue...·[AVGO]Broadcom +2.95% to $417 — custom ASIC thesis validated as all four hyperscale...·[MU]Micron stable at $517 — Microsoft $190B capex with $25B memory cost surge dir...·[ASML]ASML +3.22% to $1,439 — hyperscaler $725B capex validates EUV demand, but MAT...·[TSM]TSMC stable at $396 — Apple iPhone +22% and hyperscaler $725B capex lock in 2...·[APLD]Applied Digital +4.79% to $34.25 — hyperscaler capex $725B validates AI data ...·[CRWV]CoreWeave -2.27% to $111.60 diverges from AI infra peers — OpenAI revenue mis...·[LRCX]Lam Research +3.66% to $258 — equipment demand bifurcation: etch/deposition s...·[NBIS]Nebius +4.32% to $117 — hyperscaler capex wave validates AI data center deman...·[Samsung]Samsung union confirms 18-day strike from May 21 — 3-4% global DRAM and 2-3% ...·[SNDK]SanDisk Q3 revenue $5.95B shatters $4.73B consensus (+251% YoY), but stock -6...·[NVDA]NVIDIA -4.63% as all four hyperscalers emphasize internal AI chips (TPU, Trai...·[VRT]Vertiv Q1 revenue $2.65B (+30%), raised FY2026 EPS guidance to $6.35 — $15B b...·[PWR]Quanta Services Q1 record: $7.87B revenue (+26%), adj EPS $2.68, record $48.5...·[AMD]AMD +5.16% to $354 on hyperscaler capex wave — now 7% above bull target as cu...·[LITE]Lumentum +5.63% to $816 — Northland raises PT to $1,000, optical products boo...·[MRVL]Marvell +5.48% to $165 — above bull target ($160) on Google TPU work and NVID...·[GEV]GE Vernova Q1 orders surge 71% to $18.3B, gas turbine backlog hits 100GW — at...·[CRDO]Credo Technology +4.23% to $107 — DustPhotonics acquisition and TSMC symposiu...·[INTC]Intel at $94.48 — at bull target ($95) after Google AI foundry deal reports a...·[ASE]ASE raises 2026 LEAP revenue outlook above $3.5B (from $3.2B), Q1 ATM revenue...·[AVGO]Broadcom +2.95% to $417 — custom ASIC thesis validated as all four hyperscale...·[MU]Micron stable at $517 — Microsoft $190B capex with $25B memory cost surge dir...·[ASML]ASML +3.22% to $1,439 — hyperscaler $725B capex validates EUV demand, but MAT...·[TSM]TSMC stable at $396 — Apple iPhone +22% and hyperscaler $725B capex lock in 2...·[APLD]Applied Digital +4.79% to $34.25 — hyperscaler capex $725B validates AI data ...·[CRWV]CoreWeave -2.27% to $111.60 diverges from AI infra peers — OpenAI revenue mis...·[LRCX]Lam Research +3.66% to $258 — equipment demand bifurcation: etch/deposition s...·[NBIS]Nebius +4.32% to $117 — hyperscaler capex wave validates AI data center deman...·[Samsung]Samsung union confirms 18-day strike from May 21 — 3-4% global DRAM and 2-3% ...·
5,000+
Dependency signals
100,000+
Daily data points
S&P 500
Full universe
28Q
Backtested alpha

We map the hidden wiring

The S&P 500 isn’t 500 independent companies. It’s a living dependency graph where one node’s output is another’s input. We reverse-engineered every 10-K filing to extract the wiring diagram that Bloomberg doesn’t show you.

Buy-side frameworkS&P 500 full coverage
Dependency signals5,000+
GICS sectors mapped11

Every number traces to a filing

We don’t trust aggregators. Every financial data point is reconciled against SEC EDGAR XBRL source filings. If the source doesn’t support a number, the field stays null — we’d rather show you nothing than show you a guess.

Validation methodEDGAR XBRL
VerificationIndependent verification
Null over guessworkAlways

Signals propagate with measurable delay

When DRAM spot prices shift, memory stocks don’t react immediately. Cross-correlation on 34 months of TrendForce monthly data shows commodity signals lead equity prices by approximately one month (r = 0.53) — a window the market consistently fails to close.

That delay is investable

After DRAM spot price increases, MU averages +20.5% over 40 trading days. After decreases, just +1.0%. The 19.5-point spread is one example from our systematic supply chain signal library.

Data window34 months
Spot UP monthsn = 24
40d spread+19.5%
Coming Soon

Next: stress-testing the unthinkable

What if TSMC goes dark? We are building Monte Carlo simulation on the full dependency graph — 10,000 paths, node-by-node propagation delay, portfolio-level VaR decomposed by supply chain routes.

Where we are heading

Calibration Curves

Q2 2026

Public Brier-scored prediction accuracy — transparency as moat.

Contagion Simulator

Q2 2026

BFS propagation engine on the full graph. Model ‘What if TSMC delays N2 by 6 months?’

Geopolitical Overlay

Q3 2026

Sanctions, export controls, and entity lists mapped onto supply chain edges.

Theta Research

For serious investors who think in systems.