Feb
05
→ 02/26
TIER 2Monolithic Power Systems FY2026 Form 10-K -- Does the Deferred-Tax Material Weakness Get Remediated Before the AI-Power Premium Gets Tested a Third Time
The Call
est · consensusfree: Q4 2026 revenue and Enterprise Data durability -- Q3 is company-guided ($1.14-1.16B), Q4 carries no guidance yet and is this ladder's largest source of estimate risk, The GAAP net-income/operating-income conversion ratio, given the still-unremediated deferred-tax control weakness sits directly in that conversion and already reset it once (the FY2024 restatement moved this ratio without touching revenue or operating income at all), Whether the FY2026 auditor ICFR attestation finds internal controls effective or not effective -- a binary outcome this report cannot forecast from arithmetic and does not attempt to, Whether the Waterford Twp. securities litigation reaches a dispositive ruling, settlement, or an amended/expanded complaint before the 10-K files, Whether MPWR discloses a named AI/hyperscaler end customer or 800V production-revenue conversion, versus maintaining the current non-disclosure while onsemi and TI disclose named wins and complete reference architectures respectively
This is a two-headed event, not a single earnings print: the financial ladder above resolves on the Q4 2026 number, but the multiple the market pays for that number depends on a separate, non-arithmetic auditor judgment (the ICFR attestation) this report cannot forecast. Size any pre-event exposure with that asymmetry in mind rather than treating a clean revenue beat as sufficient for a re-rate.
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