Dashboard
Demo bookThe tape into Tuesday, September 8, 2026 is being set by a systemic energy-and-shipping shock rather than by any single company: Iran has threatened a restricted maritime zone around the Strait of Hormuz, U.S.-Iran ma…
F&G 42 · fearToday's FindingsSee every decision before you pay.
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This week's decisions
Full trigger catalog · grouped by decision source- A1MUThis weekStrong Buy7.8% of bookAutomatedBUY zone crossed
Price fell below the base support while weighted upside reopened to 31%.
Price is 4.2% below baseRecommendedAdd toward 10%— the entry price now compensates for the modeled downsideThis week - A2ASEThis weekHold5.4% of bookAutomatedSELL zone crossed
Price moved through the bull target; the model's remaining edge is negative.
Price is 5.0% above bullRecommendedTrim to 3%— harvest gains once the modeled upside is exhaustedThis week - A3INTCNowSell3.1% of bookPreviewInvalidation price hit
The position traded below the price that invalidates the turnaround case.
Invalidation marker: 18RecommendedExit / re-underwrite— a pre-committed stop is only useful if it changes the decisionWithin 2 days - A4PLTRNowBuy3.9% of bookPreviewUnexplained price move
Shares fell 8.6% in one session with no attributable company news.
−8.6%Volume 2.1× 20-day averageRecommendedInvestigate before trading— separate market mechanics from a hidden thesis breakBefore next open - A5AVGOWatchBuy8.2% of bookPreviewValuation re-rate
Forward multiple expanded to the top decile of its own five-year range.
15× · 22× · 33×31× now vs 22× five-year medianRecommendedHold; cap new buying— fundamentals remain intact but the margin of safety narrowedNext review - B1TSMWatchStrong Buy8.9% of bookAutomatedThesis driver confirmed
N2 yield and AI accelerator demand both moved in the thesis-positive direction.
N2 yieldAI demandFXRecommendedHold; raise conviction— two independent drivers now confirm the base caseLog at next review - B2AMDNowHold5.7% of bookAutomatedThesis driver broke
The customer-ramp assumption failed while competitive pressure increased.
Customer rampShare gainsGross marginRecommendedCut to starter size— the position size no longer matches the weaker evidenceWithin 2 days - B3NVDAThis weekBuy9.6% of bookPreviewThesis metric vs earnings
Data-center revenue beat the metric the thesis depends on by 7.4%.
Expected49.3$BActual52.9$BActual +7.4% vs thesis expectationRecommendedKeep size; update model— the print confirms the driver without yet changing valuation disciplineBefore next session - B4SNDKThis weekStrong Buy4.5% of bookPreviewGuidance change
Gross-margin guidance moved above the range embedded in our base case.
Gross-margin guide47–49%→50–52%Base model was 48.5%RecommendedRaise base case— guidance now supports a higher earnings pathThis week - B5METAWatchBuy4.8% of bookPreviewNew filing touched a driver
The 10-Q disclosed a capex range above the assumption in our valuation model.
10-QJul 102027 capex$72–78B disclosed vs $68B modeledRecommendedRe-run FCF sensitivity— the disclosure changes a named valuation inputBefore next review - B6ASMLWatchBuy6.3% of bookPreviewConsensus revision
Consensus EPS moved higher but still trails our research estimate.
Prior €31.4→Consensus €33.1Our estimate €35.6FY27 EPSRecommendedHold the differentiated view— the market is moving toward, but has not reached, our numbersNext review - C1AAPLThis weekBuy7.2% of bookAutomatedEarnings ahead
Earnings arrive in four days with a 7.2% position at risk.
4dQ3 earnings
Our prediction · AI revenue beats; margin guide holds
RecommendedConfirm event sizing— decide add, trim, or hold before the printBefore earnings - C2AMATWatchStrong Buy5.2% of bookAutomatedDated catalyst ahead
A dated advanced-packaging launch can resolve a key 2027 revenue debate.
9dAdvanced-packaging launch
Our prediction · Platform expands 2027 revenue opportunity
RecommendedSet scenarios before event— pre-commit the decision before the evidence arrivesBefore Jul 21 - C3AMKRWatchBuy4.1% of bookPreviewPost-event scoring
Our earnings prediction was directionally right but too confident.
Predicted 76% beat→Actual BeatSettled against the printRecommendedRecalibrate confidence— forecast quality should change how much we trust the next callThis week - D1COHRThis weekBuy4.1% of bookAutomatedPosition mis-sized
The position is smaller than its edge and conviction support.
4.1% now → 7% target2.9 points below targetRecommendedAdd toward 7%— align capital with the strength of the evidenceThis week - D2PortfolioWatchAutomatedConcentration risk
Five semiconductor positions express one shared AI-capex bet.
42.6%NVDATSMMUAVGOAMKRShared driver: AI infrastructure capexRecommendedDiversify the driver— multiple tickers do not guarantee independent riskPhase over 2 weeks - D3ExposureThis weekPreviewNet-exposure drift
Net exposure rose above the portfolio's committed risk range.
Net exposure 88% → 75%Policy range: 65–80%RecommendedReduce net to 75%— restore the risk budget before adding new single-name riskThis week - D4CRWVWatchHold3.7% of bookPreviewLiquidity constraint
Exiting the position would take more than three normal trading days.
3.8 daysADV $42M · position $32MAssumes 20% of ADV participationRecommendedCap further buying— position size must reflect the time needed to exitBefore adding - E1LRCXThis weekStrong Buy5.8% of bookPreviewIndustry-event propagation
A memory supply event propagates through three holdings with different directions.
HBM4 supply→LRCX ↑MU ↑NVDA ↓Supply tightness raises memory pricing power and tool demandRecommendedAdd the direct beneficiary— trade the transmission mechanism, not only the headlineThis week - E2WDCThis weekBuy2.6% of bookPreviewPeer read-through
Seagate's guidance provides a positive read-through to WDC demand and pricing.
STX→WDCRevenue guide+9.2% vs consensusShared driver: nearline demandRecommendedRaise near-term estimate— the peer disclosed a shared end-market signal before our holding reportsBefore WDC earnings - F1RegimeNowPreviewRegime shift
Rates and inflation shifted the regime enough to change the portfolio tilt.
Goldilocks→Higher-for-longer10Y 4.63%CPI 3.3%Oil $104RecommendedLower duration tilt— a top-down shift matters only when it changes position decisionsWithin 2 days
News
- BullishTSM
TSMC and ASML launch a joint 12-inch EUV photomask initiative targeting a pilot line in 2031 and production readiness in 2033
Source: finnhub.io
Elsewhere in coverage
- BullishSKHynix
SK hynix targets High-NA EUV lithography for DRAM volume production by 2028
Source: news.google.com - BullishBE
Bloom Energy joins the S&P 500 before the September 21, 2026 open in the quarterly index rebalance
Source: benzinga.com - NeutralSamsung
● Samsung jointly leads Mistral's €3 billion Series D at a post-money valuation above €21 billion
Source: news.google.com - BullishINTC
Intel and ASML report more than 1 million High-NA EUV wafers processed across certification, R&D and selected production layers
Source: benzinga.com - NeutralNOK
● Nokia launches Mobile Core Early Access, a hosted 5G-core test environment for operators and enterprises, on September 8, 2026
Source: benzinga.com