Supply Chain Architecture
The AI semiconductor ecosystem has several critical chokepoints:
- EUV Lithography: ASML is the sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines
- Leading-Edge Foundry: TSMC manufactures 90%+ of leading-edge (<7nm) chips
- HBM: SKHynix controls ~50% of HBM market, Samsung ~40%
- Advanced Packaging: TSMC CoWoS and AMKR/ASE for non-TSMC packaging
Geopolitical Risk Matrix
| Component | Primary Source | Geo Risk |
| EUV machines | Netherlands (ASML) | Medium |
| Leading-edge fab | Taiwan (TSMC) | High |
| HBM | South Korea | Medium |
| Chip design | USA | Low |
| Rare earths | China | High |
Scenario Impact
A Taiwan contingency would impact ~$500B in annual semiconductor output. Investors should monitor cross-strait relations and US/Japan/EU fab expansion timelines.