The One-Line Verdict
AEP Ohio has moved Baku-Gavin from pre-application framing into formal OPSB review. The filing and an October 27 local hearing are constructive process milestones, and the application targets late-2028 service, but none of this is the certificate approval required by the AEP thesis's entry trigger.
What Changed
AEP now publishes the Certificate Application for the Baku-Gavin 765-kV Transmission Line under OPSB case 26-0426-EL-BTX. The application identifies a 51.3-mile preferred route between the proposed Baku Substation and the existing Gavin Substation across Pike, Jackson, and Gallia counties. It states that the customer is committed to paying the project's total cost, preserving the core ratepayer-protection feature of the Piketon structure.
OPSB's formal local public hearing is scheduled for October 27 at Jackson High School. That date is outside the old September monitoring window and corrects the shorthand that treated September as a potential hearing-and-approval period. The filing is in; the certificate is not.
The Timetable Improved
The application's project schedule shows construction from early 2027 through late 2028, facilities in service in late 2028, and restoration in early 2029. That is earlier than the prior 2029 in-service framing. The approximately $1.1 billion line-cost estimate remains intact in the September 8 Ohio Farm Bureau update.
This is modestly constructive for AEP because it converts an uncertain filing milestone into a documented regulatory process and advances the operating date. It is not enough to raise a target or change the position: the route still faces the hearing, intervention record, staff review, and final board decision.
Forecast Availability
The pre-event report carries neither a forecastModel nor a legacy scenarioMatrix. Under the current post-event contract, the six qualitative cards are not formally scored and no Brier statistic is produced. The factual record is still useful: the application is filed, the hearing is dated after September, and the application now gives a late-2028 in-service schedule. Claims defined by absence through September 30 remain open until that date.
Market Reaction
AEP rose 0.74% on September 8 and fell 0.60% on September 9. PWR rose 2.35% and then fell 1.89%. The September 8 session also featured a broad market decline amid geopolitical and oil-price pressure, and the docket update was not an issuer market release. The moves are contemporaneous observations, not evidence that investors repriced Baku-Gavin.
Thesis and Positioning
Hold AEP. The administrative path has improved, but the investment trigger remains certificate approval plus evidence that the customer-funded model can replicate beyond Piketon. The AEP research framework should update the project's stage, the October 27 hearing date, and the late-2028 in-service schedule without promoting filing into approval.
No PWR position change follows from this update. The docket confirms progress in an already-known AEP transmission relationship but supplies no new Quanta award amount, revenue timing, margin, or construction milestone.
What to Watch Next
The intervention record is now the highest-value near-term evidence. Organized landowner or environmental participation would change schedule risk; its absence cannot be declared until the filing window closes. Separately, the Ohio Supreme Court tariff appeal and any second customer-funded transmission announcement remain open through September 30.
Sources
- AEP Baku-Gavin project page
- Baku-Gavin Certificate Application, OPSB case 26-0426-EL-BTX
- Ohio Farm Bureau docket and hearing update, September 8, 2026
- Ohio Supreme Court case 2025-1458 merit brief
- Historical closing-price data retrieved September 15, 2026 from StockAnalysis (AEP) and FinanceCharts (PWR).