Clean beat & raise — Q2 revenue above the $5.24B consensus and EPS above $1.92, Q3 revenue guided with a midpoint above the ~$5.5B sequential-growth consensus, gross margin at/above 59% and framed toward the 60%+ path as utilization rises, industrial breadth and data-center compounding both reaffirmed
In-line print, in-line Q3 guide — Q2 ~$5.2B / ~$1.92 with gross margin ~59-60%, Q3 revenue midpoint roughly matching the ~$5.5B consensus, recovery characterized as on-track without acceleration
Soft Q3 guide / margin disappointment — Q2 roughly in-line but Q3 revenue midpoint below the ~$5.5B consensus, or gross-margin guidance flags the ~$350M 2026 depreciation drag capping the margin path, or cautious demand/China commentary
→ Treat TXN as the analog-cluster read-through — ADI, MCHP, NXPI, ON and IFX report shortly after; a strong Q3 guide de-risks adds across the group, a soft guide is a sector-wide caution to fade the whole re-rated complex
→ At ~$293 (+64% YTD) TXN is priced for the harvest-year recovery; an in-line print with only an in-line Q3 guide is a probable 'sell-the-news' setup — avoid chasing into the print
→ If the print confirms broad industrial recovery + DC compounding AND China commentary stays contained, the more depressed peers (MCHP, ADI) may offer better risk/reward than TXN itself, which already carries the recovery in its multiple
→ If the Q3 guide midpoint disappoints or gross-margin guidance flags the depreciation drag, read it as a caution on the entire analog complex, not just TXN — sizing down across the group beats averaging into the bellwether
Q2 2026 revenue prints at or above the ~$5.24B consensus (within or above the $5.0-$5.4B guide)
Q2 2026 EPS prints at or above the ~$1.92 consensus (guide $1.77-$2.05)
Q3 2026 revenue guidance MIDPOINT is at or above ~$5.5B (sequential growth continues)
If the Q3 midpoint lands below ~$5.5B → sector caution; fade the re-rated analog complex (ADI/MCHP/NXPI) rather than buy the TXN dip
Q2 2026 gross margin comes in at or above 59% (consistent with the low-to-mid 59% guide)
Management reaffirms data center as a top growth driver and quantifies the DC business (>$1B run-rate, continued strong YoY growth)
If DC growth is quantified and still compounding ~90% YoY → the durable secular anchor for holding TXN through cyclical noise
Q3 2026 gross-margin guidance implies expansion above the Q2 ~59% level (sequential GM improvement, depreciation drag absorbed)
Management reiterates that 300mm capex is past its peak / declining, with FY2026 free-cash-flow-inflection language intact
TXN provides explicit commentary on China retaliatory-tariff / US-origin classification risk on the call or in the release
TXN shares move at least +/-5% on July 23 (absolute close-to-close reaction to the after-close print)
Management explicitly lowers a full-year outlook or flags broad demand softening (a bear print)
A specific new negative China data point is disclosed (China revenue declining QoQ or a quantified tariff hit to margins)