Event forecasts update as reality changes.

Data Vantage growth acceleration — validates recurring revenue re-rating thesis

Q1 2026 earnings — adj EPS $0.91 beat $0.89, rev $7.24B beat; guidance affirmed, capex raised (reported 2026-05-06, EDGAR-validated)

June 2026 offering 60-day company and insider lock-up expiry (REALIZED on or about 2026-08-02)

Q2 FY2026 earnings — revenue $392.4M vs $355-365M guide (beat), non-GAAP EPS $0.80 vs $0.68-0.70, GAAP gross margin 73.3% (73.7% non-GAAP) down roughly 300bps from 76.3%, of which about 200bps was the pre-flagged Amazon-warrant contra-revenue effect and the residual is not separately quantified; Q3 guided $540-560M

Q2 2026 earnings (Aug 2026) — first clean quarter to validate LIFO reversal + operating margin recovery to 15.5%+

Commercial-pricing soft cycle — depth/duration of the first overall premium decline since 2017 vs buyback accretion offset

Q1 2026 earnings — beat: $10.253B (+38% YoY, $453M above mid-guide); DC $5.775B (+57% YoY); non-GAAP EPS $1.37; Q2 guide $11.2B (+46% YoY) materially above consensus

Q2 2026 earnings realized — GAAP operating margin was 34.7%, below the 38% confirmation threshold

Q2 FY2026 earnings — validated: beat + FY guide raised to ~$4.85, backlog $20B (+26% organic), orders +30% organic, adj EBIT margin 15.5%

Vehicle Care Technology Plus revenue traction — validates EV tech coverage as new growth vector

Subscription & services revenue crossing 50% of total — structural shift confirmation

Lowey Dannenberg securities investigation (basis: Apr-9 Webster board resignation over governance)

Q2 2026 earnings — record $627.0M sales and $0.68 EPS; growth guide raised to 55-60%, margin guide cut to 25-26%

Second hyperscaler DirectFlash design win

Q2 2026 earnings: confirm edge-AI re-acceleration and gross-margin trajectory

Bloom Energy behind-the-meter fuel-cell power — ~250MW guaranteed / 328MW installed in aggregate (first project live 2026)

Nvidia Vera Rubin full production + HBM4 supplier ramp (Samsung/SK Hynix/Micron) — direct DRAM-tooling demand pull (REALIZED June 1, 2026)

Amazon co-brand small-business credit card launch (August 14, 2026) — ~$1.6B loans, ~$75-85M quarterly revenue, ~700K clients

Q1 2026 earnings — first Carbyne consolidated quarter; validates Axon 911 cross-sell thesis. RESOLVED 2026-05-06: beat + guide raise to 30-32%

2026 FIFA World Cup counter-drone (Dedrone) deployments — FEMA C-UAS grants expanding Axon contracts (Dallas +$10.3M, NYPD $6.5M unit); watch Platform Solutions revenue ramp and post-tournament contract retention

Q4 + FY2026 earnings, date company-confirmed for 2026-08-18; FY2027 margin guidance expected on the same call

Sustained book-to-bill >1.0 and $1.6B backlog conversion

Q2 FY2026 earnings — above-seasonal growth validated (rev $3.62B/+37%, adj EPS $3.09 beat, non-GAAP GM 73%, data center +90% YoY); Q3 FY2026 guide raised to record $3.9B (~+35% YoY) / adj EPS $3.30 / ~49% op margin — Q3 print (8/19) is the confirm checkpoint

Delayed Q3 FY2026 10-Q filing and final cash/share/control disclosures

Q2 FY2026 earnings — validates raised guidance trajectory and ATS momentum

Tariff cycle peak + EDLP price-hold sustainability

Q1 FY2026 earnings — tariff paradox validation (comps 7-8% guide, margin holds)

LEQEMBI IQLIK subcutaneous treatment initiation PDUFA — most important near-term catalyst (FDA review extended May 8, 2026; new action date Aug 24)

Q3 FY2026 Earnings

GAAP margin normalization — restructuring charges wind down, target 26-28% by H2 FY2027

Q2 FY2026 earnings — AI PC demand sustainability and memory cost margin impact

C&F data center construction demand durability — 15%+ growth sustained

Tariff trajectory — June 1, 2026 proclamation cut the import-side farm/construction-equipment tariff to 15% from 25% (10% for ≥85% US steel/aluminum/copper content), effective Jun 8 2026–Dec 31 2027; partial relief on the ~$1.2B FY2026 headwind (fuller benefit FY2027). Watch Q3 FY2026 commentary for run-rate impact + residual China export-retaliation leg

Hanley Energy integration synergies — core operating margin reaches 6.2%+ for two consecutive quarters