Partial success — vehicle launches and reaches space but one primary objective (V3 deploy, in-space relight, or splashdown) fails
Clean full success — Flight 13 launches July 23, completes ascent, deploys Starlink V3, relights Raptor in space, and lands a controlled Indian Ocean splashdown
Launch failure / RUD — vehicle lost during ascent or a booster/ship anomaly ends the flight
→ SPCX is PRIVATE and not directly tradeable — treat Flight 13 as a narrative/valuation checkpoint for the secondary market, not a trade.
→ RKLB is the only liquid read-through and it is second-order; a single Starship test is unlikely to move the Neutron thesis. Avoid trading RKLB on the launch outcome alone.
→ A full success modestly widens SpaceX's lift-capacity lead (Starship 150t vs Neutron 13t); a scrub/RUD is a marginal, short-lived relative positive for RKLB sentiment, not a fundamental catalyst.
Starship Flight 13 lifts off on or before July 23, 2026 (no further scrub of the attempt)
If it scrubs again → Raptor-reliability doubt persists; no RKLB trade (sympathy move, if any, fades within a session)
Flight 13 successfully deploys the next-generation Starlink V3 satellites (first Starship payload to space)
If V3 deploy succeeds → Starlink operational-capacity narrative strengthens; a marginal, non-actionable negative for the AMZN Kuiper narrative
Flight 13 completes the planned in-space Raptor relight
The Starship upper stage achieves a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean as planned
SpaceX confirms full mission success across all four primary objectives (ascent, V3 deploy, relight, controlled splashdown)
If clean full success → SpaceX medium/heavy-lift lead widens; watch RKLB for any sympathy weakness as a potential Neutron-optionality add point, not a fundamental change
The July 23 attempt is scrubbed/aborted again (no launch that day)
Flight 13 ends in vehicle loss / RUD before completing ascent
RKLB moves more than 3% (absolute) in the session after the Flight 13 outcome