Micron Technology Q4 FY2026 Earnings
The Call
Contract pricing remains the main mover: flat-to-low-single-digit bit growth plus another large, moderating DRAM and NAND price step should lift Q4 revenue above both Micron's guide and the Street while gross margin expands further.
| Metric | Our Estimate | Company Guidance | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|
| RevenueGAAP Consensus from current earnings aggregators on 2026-09-23; the model is 8.0% above guide midpoint and 3.6% above consensus. | $54.00B USD B | $50.0B +/- $1.0B USD B | $52.10B USD B |
| Gross profitGAAP Revenue multiplied by the 88.2% gross-margin call. | $47.628B USD B | $43.0B at the revenue and gross-margin midpoints USD B | — |
| Gross marginGAAP Pricing remains positive but moderates from Q3; mix and HBM/server demand keep incremental margin high. | 88.2%% | approximately 86.0%% | — |
| Operating profitGAAP Gross profit less $1.95B modeled GAAP operating expense. | $45.678B USD B | $41.14B at guidance midpoints USD B | — |
| Operating marginGAAP Operating profit divided by revenue. | 84.6%% | 82.3% at guidance midpoints% | — |
| Net incomeGAAP Operating profit plus approximately $0.15B net non-operating income, taxed at 15.0%. | $38.951B USD B | — | — |
| Diluted EPSGAAP Net income divided by 1.15B diluted shares; consensus dated 2026-09-23. | $33.87 USD/share | $30.73 +/- $1.00 USD/share | $32.21 USD/share |
- → Realized calendar-Q3 DRAM/NAND pricing lands near the low-20s percentage increase embedded in the $50B guide rather than the roughly 30%-40% channel evidence; revenue would fall toward $50B-$51B and gross margin toward 86%.
- → Year-end shipment timing or customer acceptance pushes more than $2B of high-margin server/HBM revenue into Q1 FY2027; the Q4 call would fall below Street despite unchanged demand.
- → Variable compensation, stock-based compensation, or one-time operating costs lift GAAP operating expense materially above $2.1B; revenue could be right while EPS misses.
Mechanical continuation from the Q4 call is about $56.7B; August Street consensus was $54.65B. The published call is $58.0B because this is the first FY2027 guide, Goldman expects low-teens sequential revenue growth, peers still report undersupply, and Micron has beaten eight consecutive revenue guide midpoints, including +5.7%, +9.1%, +27.6%, and +23.7% in the last four quarters. Confidence remains lower than the Q4 ladder because this forecasts management behavior.
Evidence (10)
Positioning Suggestions
→ Consider retaining the core MU position through the print; the model's revenue and EPS calls clear the Street, while the Q1 FY2027 guide is the more important durability test.
→ If MU is above 5% of portfolio value, consider trimming about 1 percentage point before earnings because the current Buy thesis is crowded and an in-line $50B-$52B print may not clear the elevated bar.
→ Treat ASML and LRCX as secondary read-throughs: add only if Micron confirms FY2027 tool and construction spending above the Q4 run rate without pulling forward demand.
Predictions
3Micron reports Q4 FY2026 GAAP revenue of about $54.0B, above the current $52.1B Street bar.
If confirmed with Q1 guidance at or above $58B, consider adding 0.5%-1.0% to MU below the model's current Buy valuation ceiling.
Micron reports Q4 FY2026 GAAP gross margin near 88.2%, above its approximately 86% guide.
If gross margin is below 86% despite revenue at guide, reduce MU by about 1 percentage point because pricing or mix has weakened before supply expands.
Micron guides Q1 FY2027 revenue to a midpoint near $58.0B with gross margin still rising.
If the revenue guide midpoint is below $55B or gross margin declines, do not add on a Q4 beat and re-underwrite the cycle peak immediately.
Key Questions
- How much of Q4 revenue growth came from DRAM/NAND pricing versus bits and mix?
- Does management's first Q1 FY2027 guide keep sequential revenue and gross margin rising?
- What fraction of signed SCA volume, deposits, and RPO is now reflected in reported revenue and liabilities?
- Does Micron quantify HBM4 revenue or share beyond the single lead-customer high-volume shipment?