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UPCOMINGTier 1earnings-cluster

Mega-Cap Q2 2026 Earnings — AI Capex Readthrough

2026-07-28 → 2026-07-31·3 companies·1 predictions
?METAdirect↑NVDAsupply-chain↑MUsupply-chain

Scenario Comparison

Bull CaseS3
15%

Mixed: ad strength but capex caution

↑ 1↓ 01 companies
+METAmild
Base CaseS1
50%

Hyperscalers raise FY2026 AI capex guidance

↑ 2↓ 02 companies
+NVDAstrong
+MUmoderate
Bear CaseS2
35%

Capex held flat with digestion language

↑ 0↓ 11 companies
−NVDAmoderate

All Scenarios

3

Positioning Suggestions

→ Treat as the key AI-capex readthrough for NVDA/MU into August

→ Size semis exposure ahead of the cluster deliberately

Predictions

1
○

At least one mega-cap raises FY2026 capex guidance

70%P1

If capex raised → hold/add semis

Key Questions

  1. Do MSFT/META/GOOGL raise AI capex?
  2. Any efficiency/ROI-on-AI framing?
  3. Cloud growth re-acceleration?

Monitoring Checklist

0/3 checked