Track Record
May 10 – Aug 14Full product preview
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Scored predictions168
Hit rate60%
Mean Brier (lower is better)0.20
Re-rates · 90d903
Scored calls
misses included
| Date ↓ | Claim | Conf. | Outcome | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14 | AMD Q2 2026 Earnings — How Much Is Left in a Guide That Was Already Aggressive | |||
| AMD discloses a standalone MI450 revenue figure | 15% | Miss | 0.02 | |
| Revenue exceeds the top of AMD's own guide range ($11.5B) | 45% | Hit | 0.30 | |
| Q3 2026 revenue guidance midpoint is above $12.0B | 70% | Hit | 0.09 | |
| Data Center segment revenue exceeds $6.5B | 60% | Hit | 0.16 | |
| Non-GAAP gross margin is at or above the 56% guide | 65% | Hit | 0.12 | |
| Q2 2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS exceeds the $1.61 consensus | 60% | Hit | 0.16 | |
| Q2 2026 revenue exceeds the $11.30B consensus | 62% | Hit | 0.14 | |
| Aug 8 | Mega-Cap Q2 2026 Earnings — AI Capex Readthrough | |||
| At least one mega-cap raises FY2026 capex guidance | 70% | Hit | 0.09 | |
| Jul 31 | FOMC July 2026 — Rate Decision & Forward Guidance | |||
| The Fed holds rates at the July meeting | 85% | Hit | 0.02 | |
| Jul 27 | Applied Digital Q4/FY2026 Earnings — First Post-DF2 Print Into a Neocloud Drawdown Below the Add Zone | |||
| APLD provides explicit quantitative FY2027 revenue guidance | 30% | Miss | 0.09 | |
| APLD signals a dilutive common-equity / ATM raise at distressed (~$26) levels | 15% | Miss | 0.02 | |
| APLD announces or confirms a NEW distinct IG counterparty or a 6th-campus lease on or around the print | 18% | Miss | 0.03 | |
| Management explicitly addresses CoreWeave counterparty health / reaffirms the A3 SPV lease structure on the call | 75% | Hit | 0.06 | |
| SG&A as a percentage of revenue improves vs Q3's ~63% | 55% | Miss | 0.30 | |
| GAAP net loss narrows vs Q3's $100.9M (Q3 carried a one-time $59.7M cloud write-down) | 68% | Miss | 0.46 | |
| Management reaffirms or raises the ~$2.1B contracted-NOI pipeline | 72% | Hit | 0.08 | |
| Management confirms the PF2 $2.15B escrow was released / the ESA was finalized (on or around the June 30 deadline) | 55% | Hit | 0.20 | |
| Q4 FY2026 revenue from continuing operations exceeds $120M (Q3 was $126.6M incl. ~$18M cloud now spun into CHRN) | 50% | Hit | 0.25 | |
| APLD reports positive adjusted EPS for a second consecutive quarter (Q3 was +$0.09) | 55% | Hit | 0.20 | |
| APLD reports positive Q4 FY2026 adjusted EBITDA of at least $40M (vs Q3's $44.1M) | 60% | Hit | 0.16 | |
| Jul 27 | SpaceX Starship Flight 13 (first-payload test) | |||
| RKLB moves more than 3% (absolute) in the session after the Flight 13 outcome | 20% | Hit | 0.64 | |
| Flight 13 ends in vehicle loss / RUD before completing ascent | 15% | Miss | 0.02 | |
| The July 23 attempt is scrubbed/aborted again (no launch that day) | 28% | Hit | 0.52 | |
| SpaceX confirms full mission success across all four primary objectives (ascent, V3 deploy, relight, controlled splashdown) | 35% | Hit | 0.42 | |
| The Starship upper stage achieves a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean as planned | 45% | Hit | 0.30 | |
| Flight 13 completes the planned in-space Raptor relight | 55% | Hit | 0.20 | |
| Flight 13 successfully deploys the next-generation Starlink V3 satellites (first Starship payload to space) | 50% | Hit | 0.25 | |
| Starship Flight 13 lifts off on or before July 23, 2026 (no further scrub of the attempt) | 60% | Miss | 0.36 | |
| Jul 24 | VeriSign Q2 2026 Earnings — .com Base Trajectory After the 2031-Notes Refinancing | |||
| Domain name base declines sequentially versus the Q1 2026 record of 176.1M | 20% | Miss | 0.04 | |
| VeriSign announces an increase to its share-buyback authorization (above the ~$863M remaining) with the Q2 print | 22% | Hit | 0.61 | |
| Management reaffirms the November 1, 2026 wholesale .com price increase to $10.97 on schedule | 60% | Hit | 0.16 | |
| Q2 2026 operating margin is at least 67% | 80% | Hit | 0.04 | |
| FY2026 revenue guidance ($1.73-1.745B) is reaffirmed or raised, not cut | 72% | Hit | 0.08 | |
| .com/.net preliminary renewal rate is 74% or higher for Q2 2026 | 68% | Hit | 0.10 | |
| Domain name base YoY growth is at least 3.0% in Q2 2026 (vs 3.7% in Q1 2026) | 55% | Hit | 0.20 | |
| Domain name base ends Q2 2026 above the Q1 2026 record of 176.1M (sequential growth) | 62% | Hit | 0.14 | |
| VeriSign Q2 2026 GAAP EPS meets or exceeds the $2.39 consensus (+8.1% YoY vs $2.21) | 55% | Miss | 0.30 | |
| VeriSign Q2 2026 GAAP revenue is at least $434M (vs $409.9M in Q2 2025 and $429M in Q1 2026) | 70% | Hit | 0.09 | |
| Jul 23 | Tesla Q2 2026 Earnings — Does the +25% YoY Delivery Blowout (480,126) Break the Delivery-Decline Sell Framework? | |||
| A specific Optimus production volume target for 2027 (units, not vision language) is given | 20% | Miss | 0.04 | |
| Management concedes on the call that Q2 demand included European pull-forward (fuel-price-driven) and guides H2 deliveries flat-to-down vs H1 run-rate | 20% | Miss | 0.04 | |
| 2026 capex guidance is raised above $25B | 25% | Hit | 0.56 | |
| FY2026 energy storage deployment guidance is raised (implied > 50 GWh) on the call | 40% | Miss | 0.16 | |
| Robotaxi expansion to at least 2 new metro areas is announced with concrete dates on the call | 35% | Hit | 0.42 | |
| Management reaffirms FSD v15 unsupervised wide release for end-2026 / early-2027 WITHOUT new hedging language | 45% | Miss | 0.20 | |
| Q2 2026 regulatory credits revenue prints below $400M | 55% | Hit | 0.20 | |
| Q2 2026 free cash flow is negative | 60% | Hit | 0.16 | |
| Q2 2026 EPS (non-GAAP) beats the ~$0.52 consensus | 55% | Miss | 0.30 | |
| Q2 2026 auto gross margin ex-regulatory-credits prints at or above 18.0% | 55% | Miss | 0.30 | |
| Jul 23 | Honeywell Technologies Q2 2026 — First Standalone RemainCo Financials After the HONA Spin | |||
| Building Automation is reported as the fastest-growing segment by organic growth in Q2 | 55% | Hit | 0.20 | |
| FY2026 organic-growth guidance is raised above the 2-3% standalone baseline | 15% | Hit | 0.72 | |
| HON shares move at least +/-4% on July 23 (absolute close-to-close), reflecting first-standalone-print uncertainty plus stale consensus feeds | 45% | Hit | 0.30 | |
| The updated 2026 outlook explicitly incorporates a Johnson Matthey Catalyst Technologies contribution (revenue and/or EPS accretion) following the July 17 close | 55% | Hit | 0.20 | |
| The stranded-cost estimate is further reduced below the June 29 <$300M figure (or declared substantially complete ahead of schedule) | 20% | Miss | 0.04 | |
| Management quantifies data-center-linked revenue or orders with a specific number (not just qualitative commentary) in the release or call | 25% | Miss | 0.06 | |
| Q2 2026 organic sales growth prints at 3% or higher | 35% | Hit | 0.42 | |
| Q2 2026 reported segment margin lands inside or above the 19.8-20.3% standalone guide (no miss below 19.8%) | 65% | Miss | 0.42 | |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EPS prints at or above the ~$1.80 RemainCo consensus (Zacks/Alphastreet basis) | 60% | Hit | 0.16 | |
| The updated FY2026 standalone outlook keeps adjusted EPS guidance at or above the June 8 range (>= $7.90-$8.30 post-split equivalent; no cut below the low end) | 75% | Hit | 0.06 | |
| Jul 23 | Alphabet Q2 2026 Earnings — The AI Capex-vs-Free-Cash-Flow Test for the Cloud + TPU Bet | |||
| A material DOJ antitrust escalation (Chrome or Android structural-divestiture path hardening) hits the headlines within the event window. | 10% | Miss | 0.01 | |
| Google advertising (Google Services) revenue grows at least 11% YoY, showing Search/ads resilience against AI-native erosion. | 55% | Hit | 0.20 | |
| GOOG stock moves at least 5% in absolute terms on 2026-07-23 (T+1 to the after-close print). | 60% | Hit | 0.16 | |
| A Gemini 4 (or 4.x flagship) frontier model is formally announced within the event window. | 18% | Miss | 0.03 | |
| Alphabet discloses or quantifies external/third-party TPU cloud revenue, or names Anthropic/Meta TPU economics, on the earnings call. | 25% | Hit | 0.56 | |
| Q2 2026 quarterly free cash flow falls more than 40% YoY (vs the Q2 2025 comp), confirming the capex-driven FCF compression. | 55% | Hit | 0.20 | |
| Management explicitly flags a further 'significant' capex increase for 2027. | 62% | Hit | 0.14 | |
| Management RAISES the FY2026 capex guidance above the prior $180-190B range. | 42% | Hit | 0.34 | |
| Cloud backlog / remaining performance obligations steps UP sequentially above the $462B Q1 2026 reference. | 68% | Hit | 0.10 | |
| Google Cloud Q2 2026 revenue grows at least 55% YoY (vs the Q4 2025 reference of +48%). | 55% | Hit | 0.20 | |
| Alphabet Q2 2026 GAAP EPS meets or beats consensus (at or above about $2.89). | 58% | Hit | 0.18 | |
| Alphabet Q2 2026 total revenue meets or beats consensus (at or above about $116.0B). | 55% | Hit | 0.20 | |
| Jul 23 | Texas Instruments Q2 2026 — Analog Bellwether Tests a Priced-For-Recovery Setup (Q3 Guide Is the Signal) | |||
| A specific new negative China data point is disclosed (China revenue declining QoQ or a quantified tariff hit to margins) | 18% | Miss | 0.03 | |
| Management explicitly lowers a full-year outlook or flags broad demand softening (a bear print) | 12% | Miss | 0.01 | |
| TXN shares move at least +/-5% on July 23 (absolute close-to-close reaction to the after-close print) | 35% | Miss | 0.12 | |
| TXN provides explicit commentary on China retaliatory-tariff / US-origin classification risk on the call or in the release | 45% | Miss | 0.20 | |
| Management reiterates that 300mm capex is past its peak / declining, with FY2026 free-cash-flow-inflection language intact | 55% | Hit | 0.20 | |
| Q3 2026 gross-margin guidance implies expansion above the Q2 ~59% level (sequential GM improvement, depreciation drag absorbed) | 40% | Hit | 0.36 | |
| Management reaffirms data center as a top growth driver and quantifies the DC business (>$1B run-rate, continued strong YoY growth) | 55% | Hit | 0.20 | |
| Q2 2026 gross margin comes in at or above 59% (consistent with the low-to-mid 59% guide) | 60% | Hit | 0.16 | |
| Q3 2026 revenue guidance MIDPOINT is at or above ~$5.5B (sequential growth continues) | 55% | Hit | 0.20 | |
| Q2 2026 EPS prints at or above the ~$1.92 consensus (guide $1.77-$2.05) | 62% | Hit | 0.14 | |
| Q2 2026 revenue prints at or above the ~$5.24B consensus (within or above the $5.0-$5.4B guide) | 60% | Hit | 0.16 | |
| Jul 23 | ServiceNow Q2 2026 Earnings — The Core-Growth Test After the IBM Budget Warning | |||
| Q2 2026 cRPO growth (constant currency) comes in BELOW 19% cc — i.e., a genuine core-bookings miss versus the guided bar. | 22% | Miss | 0.05 | |
| ServiceNow guides Q3 2026 subscription revenue growth BELOW 20% constant currency (a forward-deceleration signal). | 28% | Miss | 0.08 | |
| Management explicitly flags US federal or public-sector IT-budget caution as a headwind on the earnings call. | 38% | Miss | 0.14 | |
| NOW stock closes HIGHER on the first trading day after earnings (a relief-rally outcome given the roughly 32.5% YTD drawdown and compressed expectations). | 50% | Hit | 0.25 | |
| NOW stock moves at least 8% in absolute terms on the first trading day after the print (elevated realized move given the de-rated, high-dispersion setup). | 55% | Miss | 0.30 | |
| Management reaffirms or raises the $1.5B 2026 Now Assist ACV target with an explicit AI monetization metric (rather than leaving AI purely qualitative). | 62% | Hit | 0.14 | |
| Management RAISES the FY2026 subscription revenue guidance above the prior $15.775B top end (an explicit beat-and-raise). | 50% | Hit | 0.25 | |
| Q2 2026 non-GAAP EPS meets or beats the roughly $0.86 Street consensus. | 66% | Hit | 0.12 | |
| Q2 2026 cRPO growth (constant currency) meets or beats the roughly 19.5% guided bar — i.e., core forward bookings do NOT decelerate below guide. | 66% | Hit | 0.12 | |
| ServiceNow Q2 2026 subscription revenue comes in at or above the $3.820B guide high end. | 60% | Hit | 0.16 | |
| Jun 24 | Micron Q3 FY2026 Earnings — Beat-vs-Elevated-Consensus + HBM4 Allocation Quantification (the sell-the-news test at an all-time high) | |||
| Management's FY2027 supply-demand framing remains reassuring (shortage/tightness extending into 2027-2028) rather than introducing explicit CXMT / three-vendor oversupply caveats. | 60% | Hit | 0.16 | |
| Management raises or reaffirms (does not cut) the HBM annualized revenue run-rate. | 78% | Hit | 0.05 | |
| Management QUANTIFIES a materially larger or growing Micron Vera Rubin VR200/NVL72 HBM4 share / FY2027 HBM pre-booking on this call (a number, not just 'certified supplier' framing). | 35% | Hit | 0.42 | |
| MU Q4 FY2026 non-GAAP gross margin guidance midpoint is ≥ 79% (peak GM sustained rather than normalizing toward high-70s/lower). | 55% | Hit | 0.20 | |
| MU Q4 FY2026 revenue GUIDANCE midpoint ACCELERATES to ≥ roughly $38B (a clear sequential step-up above the Q3 run-rate). | 40% | Hit | 0.36 | |
| MU Q3 FY2026 non-GAAP gross margin prints ≥ 81% (meets/exceeds the unprecedented official guide). | 62% | Hit | 0.14 | |
| MU Q3 FY2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS beats the Street consensus of $20.69 (third-party, Finnhub) — vs the official $19.15 guide (record source). | 60% | Hit | 0.16 | |
| MU Q3 FY2026 revenue beats the elevated Street consensus of $35.88B (third-party, Finnhub aggregator) — i.e., clears the bar the market is actually pricing, not just the guide. | 52% | Hit | 0.23 | |
| MU Q3 FY2026 revenue prints ≥ the official $33.5B guide (record source: Micron IR) — i.e., at/above the company's own guidance. | 92% | Hit | 0.01 | |
| Jun 5 | NVIDIA GTC Taipei 2026 (Computex) — RTX Spark + Vera Rubin CPU: Full-Stack Into Client & Agentic | |||
| NVIDIA announces a next-gen frontier open model (a Nemotron successor) alongside an enterprise agentic toolkit. | 50% | Hit | 0.25 | |
| Jensen cites a major Taiwan/sovereign AI-infrastructure capex commitment exceeding $100B. | 40% | Hit | 0.36 | |
| NVIDIA announces a China-specific or export-compliant accelerator (H20 successor / compliant SKU). | 20% | Miss | 0.04 | |
| Qualcomm and/or Intel fall on a newly-announced NVDA PC-CPU competitive threat. | 40% | Hit | 0.36 | |
| NVDA stock rises more than 3% on keynote day (June 1, 2026). | 45% | Hit | 0.30 | |
| Jensen names a humanoid-robot / physical-AI reference platform (Jetson-class compute + Isaac/GROOT stack). | 55% | Hit | 0.20 | |
| The Vera Rubin CPU is confirmed in FULL production with OEM/cloud partners (not merely sampling). | 60% | Hit | 0.16 | |
| NVIDIA unveils a consumer/client PC processor (an Arm-based Windows PC chip) at the keynote. | 65% | Hit | 0.12 | |
| Jun 5 | Marvell Q1 FY2027 Earnings — Custom Silicon Pipeline Test + DSP/CPO Crossover | |||
| Management explicitly addresses NVIDIA Spectrum-6 Photonics CPO competition on the earnings call with offensive framing (e.g., 'our CPO wins are...') rather than defensive framing. | 20% | Miss | 0.04 | |
| FY27 full-year revenue guidance is reaffirmed at >$11B (vs. cut to $10.0-10.5B). | 80% | Hit | 0.04 | |
| Stock closes May 28, 2026 (T+1 to print) ABOVE $185.00 (i.e., strong beat-raise breakout). | 15% | Hit | 0.72 | |
| Stock closes May 28, 2026 (T+1 to print) BELOW $165.00 (i.e., setup risk dominates upside on stretched valuation). | 55% | Miss | 0.30 | |
| Marvell announces a commercial customer win for its own CPO (co-packaged optics) architecture during the Q1 FY27 call. | 12% | Miss | 0.01 | |
| Marvell announces a 4th hyperscaler custom XPU design win during the Q1 FY27 call. | 15% | Miss | 0.02 | |
| Management explicitly addresses Trainium 3 award status with new specific detail (units, revenue, program scope) beyond Q4 FY26 'working on Trainium 3/4' language. | 45% | Miss | 0.20 | |
| Management discloses Microsoft Maia by name as a revenue-contributing program in Q1 FY27 (vs. 'ramping in CY26' generic language). | 40% | Miss | 0.16 | |
| Non-GAAP gross margin prints at or above 60.0%. | 70% | Miss | 0.49 | |
| Marvell Q2 FY27 revenue guidance is ≥ $2.55B (midpoint at or above consensus). | 55% | Hit | 0.20 | |
| Marvell Q1 FY27 revenue beats Street consensus (~$2.44B) by 1%+ (i.e., ≥$2.465B). | 60% | Miss | 0.36 | |
| Marvell Q1 FY27 revenue ≥ $2.40B (i.e., meets or beats guidance midpoint). | 85% | Hit | 0.02 | |
| May 22 | NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Earnings — Blackwell Ramp Validation + Vera Rubin Supply Chain Test | |||
| NVDA stock moves more than 7% in either direction within 2 trading days of the earnings report | 55% | Miss | 0.30 | |
| Management quantifies China export control revenue impact at >$8B annual run-rate foregone | 35% | Miss | 0.12 | |
| Groq 3 LPU receives specific revenue or shipment commentary (not just roadmap mention) | 20% | Miss | 0.04 | |
| Jensen Huang or Colette Kress addresses Vera Rubin production volume targets (confirms or rebuts KeyBanc 25% cut report) | 50% | Hit | 0.25 | |
| Management confirms Vera Rubin NVL72 shipping on schedule for H2 2026 | 75% | Hit | 0.06 | |
| Networking/interconnect revenue exceeds $9B in Q1 FY2027 (above Q3 FY2026's $8.2B record) | 45% | Hit | 0.30 | |
| Normalized gross margin (ex write-downs) reported at or above 75% for Q1 FY2027 | 65% | Hit | 0.12 | |
| Q2 FY2027 revenue guidance exceeds $85B (sustaining 8%+ sequential growth) | 40% | Hit | 0.36 | |
| NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 revenue exceeds $82B (5%+ above $78B guidance) | 25% | Miss | 0.06 | |
| NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 revenue meets or exceeds $78B management guidance | 85% | Hit | 0.02 | |
| May 22 | Samsung 18-Day Chip Strike (May 21–June 7) — Global Memory Supply Disruption Risk | |||
| Total production blackout period (strike + recovery) exceeds 30 calendar days | 25% | Miss | 0.06 | |
| MU and SKHynix stocks outperform Samsung by more than 5% during the May 21–June 7 strike window | 55% | Miss | 0.30 | |
| NVIDIA publicly or through industry channels confirms reallocation of HBM4 orders away from Samsung during the strike window | 15% | Miss | 0.02 | |
| Samsung concedes to uncapping performance bonuses at >12% of operating profit (union's core demand) | 15% | Miss | 0.02 | |
| DRAM contract price increases exceed 5% QoQ beyond pre-strike trajectory, attributable to Samsung supply disruption | 35% | Miss | 0.12 | |
| Korean government intervenes with binding mediation or arbitration order within the first 7 days of the strike | 40% | Miss | 0.16 | |
| Samsung strike lasts the full 18 days (May 21 through June 7) without settlement | 20% | Miss | 0.04 | |
| More than 25,000 workers participate on the first day of the strike | 45% | Miss | 0.20 | |
| Samsung chip workers strike begins on or after May 21, 2026 (NLRC talks fail to produce pre-strike settlement) | 70% | Miss | 0.49 | |
| May 22 | Applied Materials Q2 FY2026 Earnings — Share Dynamics Test + HBM Equipment Doubling Validation | |||
| Management directly addresses or pushes back on the Castellano market share analysis during the earnings call | 10% | Miss | 0.01 | |
| AMAT stock closes above $445 within 2 trading days of earnings (May 16-19) | 30% | Hit | 0.49 | |
| Management provides a specific advanced packaging revenue figure for the first time (any dollar amount disclosed) | 15% | Miss | 0.02 | |
| China revenue declines to below 23% of total revenue in Q2 FY2026 (was ~25% in Q1) | 45% | Miss | 0.20 | |
| Gross margin sustains at or above 49.0% in Q2 FY2026 (matching Q1 level) | 55% | Hit | 0.20 | |
| DRAM as percentage of Semi Systems revenue sustains at or above 33% in Q2 FY2026 | 70% | Miss | 0.49 | |
| Management explicitly reaffirms >20% CY2026 semiconductor equipment growth in prepared remarks or Q&A | 80% | Hit | 0.04 | |
| Q3 FY2026 guidance revenue midpoint exceeds $8.0B, implying sequential acceleration and H2 strength | 30% | Hit | 0.49 | |
| AMAT Q2 FY2026 non-GAAP EPS exceeds consensus of $2.68, continuing the 4-quarter beat streak | 60% | Hit | 0.16 | |
| AMAT Q2 FY2026 revenue exceeds $8.0B (vs $7.65B guidance midpoint), validating >20% CY2026 growth trajectory | 25% | Miss | 0.06 | |
| May 21 | Nebius Q1 2026 Earnings — Step-Function Revenue Test at Stretched Valuation | |||
| Third hyperscaler contract ($3B+ TCV) with Amazon, Google, or Oracle announced during earnings | 8% | Miss | 0.01 | |
| NBIS stock moves more than 12% in either direction within 2 trading days of the report | 55% | Hit | 0.20 | |
| Token Factory inference ARR or customer metrics formally disclosed for the first time | 30% | Miss | 0.09 | |
| Eigen AI acquisition close confirmed or imminent during the earnings call | 75% | Miss | 0.56 | |
| Q1 adj. EBITDA margin (group level) exceeds 30% (up from 7% group / 24% core cloud in Q4 2025) | 30% | Hit | 0.49 | |
| FY2026 revenue guidance raised above $3.4B (current top end) | 15% | Miss | 0.02 | |
| Management provides initial 2027 revenue guidance or quantitative color during the earnings call | 65% | Miss | 0.42 | |
| NBIS Q1 2026 revenue exceeds $400M (bull confirmation trigger from thesis) | 35% | Miss | 0.12 | |
| NBIS Q1 2026 revenue meets or exceeds $388M analyst consensus | 50% | Hit | 0.25 | |
| May 10 | CoreWeave Q1 2026 Earnings — Debt Leverage vs Backlog Validation | |||
| Management announces a new customer contract worth >$3B during the Q1 earnings call | 10% | Miss | 0.01 | |
| FY2026 full-year revenue guidance is raised above $13B | 10% | Miss | 0.01 | |
| CRWV stock moves more than 15% in either direction within 2 trading days of the report | 60% | Miss | 0.36 | |
| Microsoft revenue concentration reported below 60% for Q1 2026 | 25% | Miss | 0.06 | |
| Q1 interest expense exceeds $590M (above the top of $510-590M guidance range) | 20% | Miss | 0.04 | |
| Q1 adjusted operating income is positive (above $0M guidance floor) | 55% | Hit | 0.20 | |
| Anthropic contract value is formally disclosed during the Q1 earnings call or filing | 40% | Miss | 0.16 | |
| CoreWeave formally reports RPO exceeding $90B at Q1 2026 earnings (including Meta/Anthropic additions) | 60% | Hit | 0.16 | |
| CoreWeave Q1 2026 revenue meets or exceeds $1.9B guidance floor | 70% | Hit | 0.09 | |
| CoreWeave Q1 2026 revenue meets or exceeds $1.97B analyst consensus | 35% | Hit | 0.42 | |
Calibration
stated vs realized
Stated Realized
Re-rate discipline
90d
- Re-rates903
- Names re-rated ≥ 2×177
- Median days between re-rates7d
- Upgrades3
- Downgrades6
- View held780
- Unclassified114