| Jun 24 | Micron Q3 FY2026 Earnings — Beat-vs-Elevated-Consensus + HBM4 Allocation Quantification (the sell-the-news test at an all-time high) |
| Management's FY2027 supply-demand framing remains reassuring (shortage/tightness extending into 2027-2028) rather than introducing explicit CXMT / three-vendor oversupply caveats. | 60% | Hit | 0.16 |
| Management raises or reaffirms (does not cut) the HBM annualized revenue run-rate. | 78% | Hit | 0.05 |
| Management QUANTIFIES a materially larger or growing Micron Vera Rubin VR200/NVL72 HBM4 share / FY2027 HBM pre-booking on this call (a number, not just 'certified supplier' framing). | 35% | Hit | 0.42 |
| MU Q4 FY2026 non-GAAP gross margin guidance midpoint is ≥ 79% (peak GM sustained rather than normalizing toward high-70s/lower). | 55% | Hit | 0.20 |
| MU Q4 FY2026 revenue GUIDANCE midpoint ACCELERATES to ≥ roughly $38B (a clear sequential step-up above the Q3 run-rate). | 40% | Hit | 0.36 |
| MU Q3 FY2026 non-GAAP gross margin prints ≥ 81% (meets/exceeds the unprecedented official guide). | 62% | Hit | 0.14 |
| MU Q3 FY2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS beats the Street consensus of $20.69 (third-party, Finnhub) — vs the official $19.15 guide (record source). | 60% | Hit | 0.16 |
| MU Q3 FY2026 revenue beats the elevated Street consensus of $35.88B (third-party, Finnhub aggregator) — i.e., clears the bar the market is actually pricing, not just the guide. | 52% | Hit | 0.23 |
| MU Q3 FY2026 revenue prints ≥ the official $33.5B guide (record source: Micron IR) — i.e., at/above the company's own guidance. | 92% | Hit | 0.01 |
| Jun 5 | NVIDIA GTC Taipei 2026 (Computex) — RTX Spark + Vera Rubin CPU: Full-Stack Into Client & Agentic |
| NVIDIA announces a next-gen frontier open model (a Nemotron successor) alongside an enterprise agentic toolkit. | 50% | Hit | 0.25 |
| Jensen cites a major Taiwan/sovereign AI-infrastructure capex commitment exceeding $100B. | 40% | Hit | 0.36 |
| NVIDIA announces a China-specific or export-compliant accelerator (H20 successor / compliant SKU). | 20% | Miss | 0.04 |
| Qualcomm and/or Intel fall on a newly-announced NVDA PC-CPU competitive threat. | 40% | Hit | 0.36 |
| NVDA stock rises more than 3% on keynote day (June 1, 2026). | 45% | Hit | 0.30 |
| Jensen names a humanoid-robot / physical-AI reference platform (Jetson-class compute + Isaac/GROOT stack). | 55% | Hit | 0.20 |
| The Vera Rubin CPU is confirmed in FULL production with OEM/cloud partners (not merely sampling). | 60% | Hit | 0.16 |
| NVIDIA unveils a consumer/client PC processor (an Arm-based Windows PC chip) at the keynote. | 65% | Hit | 0.12 |
| Jun 5 | Marvell Q1 FY2027 Earnings — Custom Silicon Pipeline Test + DSP/CPO Crossover |
| Management explicitly addresses NVIDIA Spectrum-6 Photonics CPO competition on the earnings call with offensive framing (e.g., 'our CPO wins are...') rather than defensive framing. | 20% | Miss | 0.04 |
| FY27 full-year revenue guidance is reaffirmed at >$11B (vs. cut to $10.0-10.5B). | 80% | Hit | 0.04 |
| Stock closes May 28, 2026 (T+1 to print) ABOVE $185.00 (i.e., strong beat-raise breakout). | 15% | Hit | 0.72 |
| Stock closes May 28, 2026 (T+1 to print) BELOW $165.00 (i.e., setup risk dominates upside on stretched valuation). | 55% | Miss | 0.30 |
| Marvell announces a commercial customer win for its own CPO (co-packaged optics) architecture during the Q1 FY27 call. | 12% | Miss | 0.01 |
| Marvell announces a 4th hyperscaler custom XPU design win during the Q1 FY27 call. | 15% | Miss | 0.02 |
| Management explicitly addresses Trainium 3 award status with new specific detail (units, revenue, program scope) beyond Q4 FY26 'working on Trainium 3/4' language. | 45% | Miss | 0.20 |
| Management discloses Microsoft Maia by name as a revenue-contributing program in Q1 FY27 (vs. 'ramping in CY26' generic language). | 40% | Miss | 0.16 |
| Non-GAAP gross margin prints at or above 60.0%. | 70% | Miss | 0.49 |
| Marvell Q2 FY27 revenue guidance is ≥ $2.55B (midpoint at or above consensus). | 55% | Hit | 0.20 |
| Marvell Q1 FY27 revenue beats Street consensus (~$2.44B) by 1%+ (i.e., ≥$2.465B). | 60% | Miss | 0.36 |
| Marvell Q1 FY27 revenue ≥ $2.40B (i.e., meets or beats guidance midpoint). | 85% | Hit | 0.02 |
| May 22 | NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Earnings — Blackwell Ramp Validation + Vera Rubin Supply Chain Test |
| NVDA stock moves more than 7% in either direction within 2 trading days of the earnings report | 55% | Miss | 0.30 |
| Management quantifies China export control revenue impact at >$8B annual run-rate foregone | 35% | Miss | 0.12 |
| Groq 3 LPU receives specific revenue or shipment commentary (not just roadmap mention) | 20% | Miss | 0.04 |
| Jensen Huang or Colette Kress addresses Vera Rubin production volume targets (confirms or rebuts KeyBanc 25% cut report) | 50% | Hit | 0.25 |
| Management confirms Vera Rubin NVL72 shipping on schedule for H2 2026 | 75% | Hit | 0.06 |
| Networking/interconnect revenue exceeds $9B in Q1 FY2027 (above Q3 FY2026's $8.2B record) | 45% | Hit | 0.30 |
| Normalized gross margin (ex write-downs) reported at or above 75% for Q1 FY2027 | 65% | Hit | 0.12 |
| Q2 FY2027 revenue guidance exceeds $85B (sustaining 8%+ sequential growth) | 40% | Hit | 0.36 |
| NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 revenue exceeds $82B (5%+ above $78B guidance) | 25% | Miss | 0.06 |
| NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 revenue meets or exceeds $78B management guidance | 85% | Hit | 0.02 |
| May 22 | Samsung 18-Day Chip Strike (May 21–June 7) — Global Memory Supply Disruption Risk |
| Total production blackout period (strike + recovery) exceeds 30 calendar days | 25% | Miss | 0.06 |
| MU and SKHynix stocks outperform Samsung by more than 5% during the May 21–June 7 strike window | 55% | Miss | 0.30 |
| NVIDIA publicly or through industry channels confirms reallocation of HBM4 orders away from Samsung during the strike window | 15% | Miss | 0.02 |
| Samsung concedes to uncapping performance bonuses at >12% of operating profit (union's core demand) | 15% | Miss | 0.02 |
| DRAM contract price increases exceed 5% QoQ beyond pre-strike trajectory, attributable to Samsung supply disruption | 35% | Miss | 0.12 |
| Korean government intervenes with binding mediation or arbitration order within the first 7 days of the strike | 40% | Miss | 0.16 |
| Samsung strike lasts the full 18 days (May 21 through June 7) without settlement | 20% | Miss | 0.04 |
| More than 25,000 workers participate on the first day of the strike | 45% | Miss | 0.20 |
| Samsung chip workers strike begins on or after May 21, 2026 (NLRC talks fail to produce pre-strike settlement) | 70% | Miss | 0.49 |
| May 22 | Applied Materials Q2 FY2026 Earnings — Share Dynamics Test + HBM Equipment Doubling Validation |
| Management directly addresses or pushes back on the Castellano market share analysis during the earnings call | 10% | Miss | 0.01 |
| AMAT stock closes above $445 within 2 trading days of earnings (May 16-19) | 30% | Hit | 0.49 |
| Management provides a specific advanced packaging revenue figure for the first time (any dollar amount disclosed) | 15% | Miss | 0.02 |
| China revenue declines to below 23% of total revenue in Q2 FY2026 (was ~25% in Q1) | 45% | Miss | 0.20 |
| Gross margin sustains at or above 49.0% in Q2 FY2026 (matching Q1 level) | 55% | Hit | 0.20 |
| DRAM as percentage of Semi Systems revenue sustains at or above 33% in Q2 FY2026 | 70% | Miss | 0.49 |
| Management explicitly reaffirms >20% CY2026 semiconductor equipment growth in prepared remarks or Q&A | 80% | Hit | 0.04 |
| Q3 FY2026 guidance revenue midpoint exceeds $8.0B, implying sequential acceleration and H2 strength | 30% | Hit | 0.49 |
| AMAT Q2 FY2026 non-GAAP EPS exceeds consensus of $2.68, continuing the 4-quarter beat streak | 60% | Hit | 0.16 |
| AMAT Q2 FY2026 revenue exceeds $8.0B (vs $7.65B guidance midpoint), validating >20% CY2026 growth trajectory | 25% | Miss | 0.06 |
| May 21 | Nebius Q1 2026 Earnings — Step-Function Revenue Test at Stretched Valuation |
| Third hyperscaler contract ($3B+ TCV) with Amazon, Google, or Oracle announced during earnings | 8% | Miss | 0.01 |
| NBIS stock moves more than 12% in either direction within 2 trading days of the report | 55% | Hit | 0.20 |
| Token Factory inference ARR or customer metrics formally disclosed for the first time | 30% | Miss | 0.09 |
| Eigen AI acquisition close confirmed or imminent during the earnings call | 75% | Miss | 0.56 |
| Q1 adj. EBITDA margin (group level) exceeds 30% (up from 7% group / 24% core cloud in Q4 2025) | 30% | Hit | 0.49 |
| FY2026 revenue guidance raised above $3.4B (current top end) | 15% | Miss | 0.02 |
| Management provides initial 2027 revenue guidance or quantitative color during the earnings call | 65% | Miss | 0.42 |
| NBIS Q1 2026 revenue exceeds $400M (bull confirmation trigger from thesis) | 35% | Miss | 0.12 |
| NBIS Q1 2026 revenue meets or exceeds $388M analyst consensus | 50% | Hit | 0.25 |
| May 10 | CoreWeave Q1 2026 Earnings — Debt Leverage vs Backlog Validation |
| Management announces a new customer contract worth >$3B during the Q1 earnings call | 10% | Miss | 0.01 |
| FY2026 full-year revenue guidance is raised above $13B | 10% | Miss | 0.01 |
| CRWV stock moves more than 15% in either direction within 2 trading days of the report | 60% | Miss | 0.36 |
| Microsoft revenue concentration reported below 60% for Q1 2026 | 25% | Miss | 0.06 |
| Q1 interest expense exceeds $590M (above the top of $510-590M guidance range) | 20% | Miss | 0.04 |
| Q1 adjusted operating income is positive (above $0M guidance floor) | 55% | Hit | 0.20 |
| Anthropic contract value is formally disclosed during the Q1 earnings call or filing | 40% | Miss | 0.16 |
| CoreWeave formally reports RPO exceeding $90B at Q1 2026 earnings (including Meta/Anthropic additions) | 60% | Hit | 0.16 |
| CoreWeave Q1 2026 revenue meets or exceeds $1.9B guidance floor | 70% | Hit | 0.09 |
| CoreWeave Q1 2026 revenue meets or exceeds $1.97B analyst consensus | 35% | Hit | 0.42 |