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Conclusions are published after independent cross-review.

VRSKVerisk Analytics, Inc.
—Full research page

Verdict

Verisk is the de facto monopoly data utility for the U.S. P&C insurance industry, serving all top 100 U.S. P&C insurers through a contributory 'give-to-get' data model with 38.9B statistical records that is nearly impossible to replicate. The 83% subscription revenue base, ~44% GAAP operating margins, and 39% FCF margins produce a capital-light compounding machine. The AI product cycle (XactAI agentic AI, Synergy Studio cloud-native platform, generative claims analytics) adds a new growth vector on top of the durable 6-8% OCC revenue growth framework, while the $1.5B ASR and 75%+ FCF return commitment drive accretive capital allocation.

ScenarioProb.TargetDriver
Bull25%$232.00FY2026 revenue exceeds $3.24B high-end guidance — AI product adoption (XactAI) drives above-trend OCC growth
Base50%$190.00FY2026 revenue in-line with $3.19-3.24B guidance — 6-8% OCC growth continues
Bear25%$137.00Insurance soft cycle begins — P&C premium growth decelerates below 3%, insurers cut IT spending

Change history

  • Apr 14View held

    Initial deep research coverage with competitive deep dive

Watching

  • Q4 2025 / FY2025 earnings (10-K filed)Feb 18139d ago
  • 2026 Investor Day — targets reiteratedMar 5124d ago
  • Wolfe FinTech Forum 2026 presentationMar 10119d ago
  • Q1 2026 earnings reportApr 2969d ago
  • Q1 2026 earnings — validate 2026 guidance trajectory; test subscription insulation from P&C cycle slowdownApr 2969d ago
  • Q2 2026 earnings reportJul 29in 22d
  • XactAI agentic AI adoption inflection — 35+ AI projects in pipeline; revenue contribution TBDJul 29in 22d
  • $1.5B ASR final settlement deadlineSep 30in 85d
  • $1.5B ASR settlement — share count reduction drives EPS accretionSep 30in 85d
  • Q3 2026 earnings reportOct 28in 113d
  • AccuLynx legal dispute resolution — litigation overhangDec 31in 177d
  • Q4 2026 / FY2026 earnings reportFeb 17, 2027in 225d
  • OCC revenue growth falls below 4% for two consecutive quarters — confirms insurance cycle transmission
  • U.S. P&C industry combined ratio sustained above 100% for two quarters — insurers cutting costs
  • FTC or DOJ opens formal antitrust investigation into Verisk's ISO statistical agent role
  • Major insurer consortium (5+ carriers) announces initiative to build alternative contributory data platform
  • Adjusted EBITDA margin contracts below 54% for two consecutive quarters
  • AccuLynx legal dispute results in >$500M settlement or damages
  • Q1 2026 P&C premium growth deceleration confirmed — annualized rate below 3%
  • Q1 2026 earnings show OCC growth at or above 7% despite P&C premium slowdown — subscription model insulation confirmed
  • XactAI adoption reaches measurable revenue contribution ($50M+ annual run-rate) by Q3 2026
  • Forward P/E re-rates from 22x to 25x+ as market recognizes insurance cycle insulation
  • $1.5B ASR settlement retires shares to below 130M diluted — EPS compounding accelerates
  • Latest notes

    • Apr 14Deep Research: VRSK — Monopoly Data Utility for U.S. P&C Insurance
    • Apr 14Competitive Deep Dive — 2026-04-14

    Exposure

    1-hop
    Suppliers
    • JPM
    • BAC
    • WFC
    • C
    • HSBC
    Customers

    None mapped.

    Options radar

    Concept — illustrative data
    • Jun 30Call$110.00Aug 211,200 ct$540K
    • Jun 30Call$105.00Jul 17800 ct$216K
    • Jun 29Put$95.00Aug 21600 ct$168K
    Unusual volume3.2x 20-day avg call volume
    IV shift30-day IV 41% → 48%

    Positioning skews toward near-term upside