Otis is the world's largest elevator/escalator OEM-service flywheel: a 2.5M-unit global maintenance portfolio (industry largest) with ~93.5% retention that produces 65% of revenue and 91% of segment operating profit. The investment case is NOT the cyclical New Equipment business (35% of sales, ~5% margins, China-pressured) — it is the Service business, which is a utility-like annuity that compounded portfolio units ~4% annually and grew service revenue 6.2% GAAP YoY (5% organic, with the gap being M&A) in FY2025 while expanding service segment operating margin 50 bps YoY to 25.1% (Q4 alone +100 bps to 25.5%). The modernization tailwind is secular and now accelerating: modernization orders +43% in Q4 2025 and modernization backlog +30% YoY to a post-spin record, driven by a global aging installed base (>7M elevators now >20 years old, projected to double to 15M by 2035). At ~$81 / ~16.6x FY2027E consensus EPS ($4.89) or ~15.6x our FY2027E estimate ($5.20, a modest +6% above-consensus variant view), OTIS trades at a discount to both its 5-year average and to industrial compounders with comparable ROIC, pricing in New Equipment weakness that Service margin expansion is already offsetting.
| Scenario | Prob. | Target | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | 30% | $137.00 | Modernization revenue conversion exceeds guidance — backlog drawdown adds >$500M incremental revenue in 2026-2027 |
| Base | 50% | $114.00 | Consensus FY2026 adj EPS ~$4.33 achieved or modestly beaten; FY2027 trajectory to $5.00+ intact (consensus $4.89) |
| Bear | 20% | $81.00 | China New Equipment deterioration accelerates — full-year 2026 NE organic declines >10%, pulling total organic growth negative |
Phase C (peer-review + internal debate)
Phase B (competitive-deep + memo)
Phase A initial thesis build
None mapped.
Positioning skews toward near-term upside