Oracle's Q4/FY2026 close (June 10, 2026) confirmed both the bull case and the bear case at once: record $67.4B FY2026 revenue (+17%), Q4 OCI IaaS +93%, and RPO exploding to $638B (+363% YoY, +$85B QoQ) — but also $55.7B FY2026 capex (above guide), a ~$70B FY2027 NET-cash capex guide (gross reported capex ~$90-95B before ~$20-25B customer prepayment/timing offsets), negative $23.7B free cash flow, and a $40B FY2027 capital-raise plan that includes a $20B at-the-market EQUITY issuance. The thesis now hinges on three linked questions: (1) does OCI's structurally thin AI gross margin (reportedly ~14-16% on early GPU deals vs management's 30-40%-over-contract-life claim) inflect upward as utilization scales, (2) is the $638B RPO real revenue or a back-loaded, GPU-prepaid, OpenAI-concentrated backlog whose ~$75B hardware portion is — on our contested read, against management's 'similar or better margin' claim — low-margin pass-through, and (3) how much do recurring equity raises dilute per-share value before FCF turns positive. The database/applications annuity (~36% of revenue, 90%+ GM) remains the floor and the funding engine; the cloud build is the binary bet.