GlobalFoundries is the largest US-headquartered pure-play foundry and is being structurally re-rated from a flat mature-node specialty foundry into a strategically protected AI- and quantum-infrastructure foundry. Three platform vectors now compound: (1) silicon photonics + data center — GF Fotonix plus the new SCALE co-packaged-optics platform, with comms-infra/data-center revenue up 32% YoY in Q1 2026 and management guiding high-30s% growth in 2026; SiPh revenue is expected to roughly double in 2026 and exceed $1B by end-2028; (2) the newly launched Quantum Technology Solutions business (May 21, 2026) — a US-based quantum manufacturing platform spanning cryogenic CMOS on FDX, QPU fabrication across five qubit modalities (superconducting, trapped-ion, photonic, topological, spin), 3D heterogeneous packaging and superconducting interconnect, with paying customers/partners including Diraq, Quantinuum, Equal1, PsiQuantum, Quantum Motion and backing from Google Quantum AI, Microsoft Quantum and NVIDIA; and (3) the defense/ITAR specialty base (22FDX, RF-SOI, GaN). The quantum line is anchored by a planned $375M CHIPS R&D award and — uniquely — an approximately 1% US-government equity stake (part of a $2.013B / 9-company federal quantum package alongside IBM's $1B Anderon award), which converts the CHIPS reshoring narrative from a subsidy into direct federal strategic alignment. At its May 2026 Investor Day GFS laid out a long-term model implying ~30% gross margin exiting 2026, ~40% exiting 2028 and ~45% long-term, ~25% operating margin exiting 2028, and an EPS power model of ~$4 exiting 2028 / ~$6 long-term, alongside its first-ever dividend ($0.12/quarter) and a capital-return framework of up to 50% of TTM non-IFRS FCF.
| Scenario | Prob. | Target | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | 30% | $122.00 | SiPh revenue doubles in 2026 and tracks clearly toward >$1B by 2028; SCALE co-packaged-optics wins major AI-scale-up sockets |
| Base | 45% | $85.00 | SiPh roughly doubles in 2026 as guided; data-center mix continues to enrich margin toward the 30%-exit-2026 target |
| Bear | 25% | $52.00 | Quantum Technology Solutions stays a sub-scale R&D line with no disclosed revenue — the market de-rates the 'quantum foundry' premium it just paid for |
Full /complete-research rebuild — quantum business line + CHIPS LOI + US-govt stake [source: ]
Initial coverage — Phase A /complete-research-v2
Phase B /complete-research-v2 — competitive analysis + investment memo
Positioning skews toward near-term upside