Dayforce was a mid-cap HCM compounder with a differentiated single-codebase cloud platform spanning payroll, workforce management, benefits, and talent for 7,000+ enterprise customers globally. The 98% gross revenue retention rate and 20%+ Dayforce recurring revenue growth demonstrated strong product-market fit, but GAAP profitability remained thin (1-6% operating margins) due to heavy investment in platform migration and international expansion. Thoma Bravo's $12.3B take-private at $70/share (completed Feb 2026) valued the company at ~7x FY2024 revenue, reflecting confidence in margin expansion under private ownership. As a private company, DAY is no longer investable in public markets but remains a significant competitive force in the HCM landscape.
| Scenario | Prob. | Target | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | 30% | $85.00 | Thoma Bravo accelerates margin expansion to 35%+ adjusted EBITDA margin under private ownership |
| Base | 50% | $70.00 | Revenue growth decelerates to 10-12% as legacy migration completes |
| Bear | 20% | $55.00 | Macro slowdown reduces enterprise IT spending and lengthens sales cycles |
None mapped.
Positioning skews toward near-term upside