Salesforce is navigating a secular transition from per-seat CRM licensing to usage-based agentic AI monetization (Agentforce + Data Cloud). At $157 (2026-06-26) and ~11.9x forward non-GAAP PE, the market has priced through the bear case of seat cannibalization — spot sits right at our $156 bear target (+0.5%) — while underweighting the compounding value of $72B RPO backlog, $14.4B FCF, and the largest enterprise CRM installed base (21.8% share). The $25B ASR at these depressed prices is even more accretive than at the original $195 anchor. The variant view is that Agentforce's $1.2B ARR (+205% YoY, Q1 FY2027) — within a combined Agentforce + Data 360 ARR of $3.4B — signals successful pricing model evolution, not decline; the transition will expand TAM from 'seats' to 'outcomes.' At spot the framework's probability-weighted target ($222.75) implies ~42% upside with the bear scenario essentially realized.