Theta Research

CBOECboe Global Markets, Inc.

Verdict

Cboe is the dominant proprietary derivatives franchise globally, with exclusive rights to list SPX index options (through 2032) and proprietary ownership of VIX — products that collectively drove ~68% of FY2025 net revenue. The secular expansion of options trading (0DTE adoption, retail democratization, institutional hedging demand) is a structural tailwind that compounds on Cboe's unassailable liquidity network effect. FY2025 delivered record results (+17% net revenue, +24% adj. EPS) and the strategic realignment (divesting Australia/Canada, exiting corporate listings) sharpens capital allocation toward high-margin proprietary derivatives and Data Vantage recurring revenue.

Scenario	Prob.	Target	Driver
Bull	25%	$390.00	FY2026 net revenue growth exceeds guidance — 8%+ organic growth driven by elevated VIX and record options volumes
Base	50%	$312.00	FY2026 organic net revenue growth in line with mid-single-digit guidance (~5-6%)
Bear	25%	$225.00	SEC imposes restrictions on 0DTE options, capping intraday expirations or increasing margin requirements

Change history

May 1View held
Phase A /complete-research — full thesis build with EDGAR validation

Watching

Q1 2026 earnings release and conference callMay 167d ago
Q1 2026 earnings — record March volumes support beat; watch for guidance updateMay 167d ago
CME single-stock futures launch (competitive watch)May 1157d ago
Mini-SPX prediction market contract launch (target Q2 2026)Jun 307d ago
SEC options market structure roundtable outcome/guidanceJun 307d ago
SEC 0DTE regulatory outcome — no restrictive action = multiple re-rating catalyst

Prediction markets contract launch — first SEC-regulated exchange entryJun 307d ago

Q2 2026 earnings releaseAug 1in 25d

Data Vantage growth acceleration — validates recurring revenue re-rating thesisAug 1in 25d

Strategic realignment completionSep 30in 85d

Strategic realignment — Cboe Australia/Canada divestitures simplify the businessSep 30in 85d

Q3 2026 earnings releaseNov 1in 117d

FY2026 10-K filingFeb 20, 2027in 228d

SEC imposes restrictions on 0DTE SPX options — intraday expiry caps, higher margin requirements, or mandatory position limits

S&P Dow Jones Indices signals non-renewal or materially higher licensing fees for SPX options ahead of 2032 expiry

VIX sustained below 15 for 6+ months — compresses proprietary product trading volumes

Index options ADV growth decelerates below 5% YoY for two consecutive quarters — volume normalization

Off-exchange venues (ATSs, single-dealer platforms) capture >40% of U.S. equity trading volume

Top-3 customer reduces trading activity by >20% or renegotiates fee structure downward

CME equity index options/futures capture >5% of equity derivatives revenue pool that was previously Cboe-dominated

SEC roundtable concludes with no restrictive action on 0DTE options by Q3 2026 — removes primary multiple overhang

Q1 2026 EPS beats $3.34 consensus and FY2026 guidance raised above mid-single-digit organic growth

Prediction markets contract launches with institutional broker-dealer participation in Q2-Q3 2026

Data Vantage organic revenue growth accelerates to 9%+ — re-rates recurring revenue premium

Cboe Clear Europe captures incremental clearing share in European derivatives post-T+1 migration

VIX spikes above 25 for sustained period — drives record proprietary product volumes

Latest notes

May 1Deep Research: CBOE — Proprietary Derivatives Franchise Analysis
May 1Competitive Deep Dive — 2026-05-01

Exposure

1-hop

Suppliers

SPGI

Customers

SCHW

Options radar

Concept — illustrative data

Jun 30Call$110.00Aug 211,200 ct$540K
Jun 30Call$105.00Jul 17800 ct$216K
Jun 29Put$95.00Aug 21600 ct$168K

Unusual volume3.2x 20-day avg call volume

IV shift30-day IV 41% → 48%

Positioning skews toward near-term upside