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Conclusions are published after independent cross-review.

BAThe Boeing Company
HoldConviction 1.8/10PW target $207.50-11.5%Rated May 28Full research page

Verdict

Boeing is a turnaround story in the aerospace duopoly with Airbus, transitioning from a multi-year quality and production crisis under new CEO Kelly Ortberg. FY2025 revenue recovered to $89.5B (+34.5% YoY) with the first positive operating income ($4.3B) since the 737 MAX grounding. The investment case hinges on three execution milestones: (1) ramping 737 MAX production from 42/month to 52+/month by end-2026, (2) certifying the 777-9 by H2 2026 to unlock $567B of commercial backlog, and (3) achieving positive free cash flow in 2026 ($1-3B) as the re-integrated Spirit AeroSystems drives quality improvements. The duopoly structure provides a floor — Boeing and Airbus collectively have 15+ years of backlog, and barriers to entry are insurmountable — but Boeing must execute or permanently cede narrowbody share to Airbus's 60% position.

ScenarioProb.TargetDriver
Bull25%$300.00737 MAX production reaches 52+/month by end-2026 with sustained quality improvements
Base50%$200.00737 MAX production ramp to 47-50/month by end-2026 — steady but behind schedule
Bear25%$130.00737 MAX production stalls below 42/month due to quality issues or supply chain disruption

Change history

  • Jun 3View held

    Research-update via : misattributed 'production pullback' selloff (slowdown is Airbus-driven; Boeing MAX output rising)

  • May 28View held

    Research-update: FAA rate-47 capstone review + Ortberg China 'initial tranche' commentary at Bernstein 2026-05-27

  • May 20View held

    Research-update via (FAA 38→42 + ramp guidance)

  • May 20View held

    200-plane China order announcement post-Trump-Xi summit

  • Apr 14View held

    Phase A deep research initiation

Watching

  • 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (virtual)Apr 1781d ago
  • Q1 2026 earnings — first full post-Spirit integration quarter, delivery count and FCF trajectoryApr 2375d ago
  • CEO Kelly Ortberg — Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference 2026May 2741d ago
  • 777-9 Phase 4A testing completion targetJun 307d ago
  • 737 MAX production rate increase to 47/month (target)Jun 307d ago
  • 777-9 Phase 4A testing with FAA pilots — most significant certification milestone
Jun 30
7d ago
  • Q2 2026 earnings reportJul 29in 22d
  • 737 MAX production rate increase to 47/month — FAA cleared rate 47 on 2026-05-27 (capstone review passed); line now running at 47 with stabilization pending. Regulatory gate cleared; remaining watch is sustained 47/mo at acceptable defect rates, then the 52/mo stepJul 29in 22d
  • China tariff resolution — 200-plane commitment May 2026 (first since 2017); CEO confirmed (Bernstein 2026-05-27) it is an 'initial tranche' firming into a definitive order later in 2026, with up to ~700 total staged over time. Definitive-order signature and physical delivery resumption are the next gates to unfreeze ~$15B backlogSep 30in 85d
  • Q3 2026 earnings reportOct 29in 114d
  • 737 MAX 10 FAA certification (target end-2026)Dec 31in 177d
  • 777-9 full FAA certification — unlocks widebody franchise ($567B commercial backlog)Dec 31in 177d
  • 737 MAX 10 FAA certification — unlocks hundreds of carrier orders (United, Delta, Alaska)Dec 31in 177d
  • Q4 2026 / FY2026 earnings reportJan 28, 2027in 205d
  • 737 MAX production stalls below 42/month for 2+ consecutive months due to quality findings or Spirit integration issues
  • FAA imposes new production restrictions or revokes Boeing's expanded airworthiness authority (restored Sept 2025)
  • 777-9 certification delayed beyond Q2 2027 — triggers additional write-downs on $34.2B program investment
  • China permanently cancels 130+ MAX orders and redirects to Airbus A320neo or COMAC C919
  • FY2026 free cash flow comes in negative — contradicts management guidance of $1-3B positive
  • Another in-flight safety incident traceable to manufacturing quality (fuselage, door mechanisms, wiring)
  • Credit rating downgrade to junk by any major agency — triggers covenant issues and higher funding costs
  • 737 MAX production reaches 47/month by mid-2026 with no quality regressions — validates Spirit integration
  • 777-9 completes Phase 4A testing and receives FAA certification in H2 2026 — unlocks widebody franchise
  • Quarterly free cash flow exceeds $1B for 2 consecutive quarters — proves cash generation inflection
  • China physical delivery resumption following 200-plane order (May 2026) — first deliveries to Chinese carriers confirms full backlog unfreeze ($15B+ value)
  • Boeing secures more gross orders than Airbus for second consecutive year — confirms customer confidence recovery
  • Latest notes

    • Jun 3Update — 'Production pullback' selloff is Airbus-driven; Boeing 737 MAX output actually rose
    • May 28Update — FAA clears 737 MAX rate 47; Ortberg calls 200-jet China deal an 'initial tranche'
    • May 20Update — FAA approves 737 MAX cap step 38→42/mo; Boeing guides 47-then-53/mo by year-end
    • May 20Update — Boeing secures 200-plane China order post-Trump Beijing summit; 500-jet target unmet
    • Apr 14Kill Search: Boeing Thesis Integrity Check

    Exposure

    1-hop
    Suppliers
    • RTXAerospace components – Collins segment (Boeing+Airbus combined 16% of Collins segment sales 2025)
    • TDGProprietary aerospace components for Boeing commercial aircraft platforms (737, 787 etc.)
    • APHAerospace/defense interconnect systems and sensors
    • GE
    • SAFRY
    • HXL
    • HON
    • HWM
    Customers
    • FDXBoeing commercial aircraft fleet (767 freighters, 777 freighters)
    • DALBoeing 787-10 aircraft – definitive purchase agreement for 30 aircraft signed Jan 2026
    • UALBoeing commercial aircraft (737 MAX, 787 Dreamliner fleet)
    • LUVBoeing 737 aircraft – Southwest operates an all-Boeing 737 fleet exclusively
    • USG
    • ALK
    • EMIRATES
    • UPS

    Options radar

    Concept — illustrative data
    • Jun 30Call$110.00Aug 211,200 ct$540K
    • Jun 30Call$105.00Jul 17800 ct$216K
    • Jun 29Put$95.00Aug 21600 ct$168K
    Unusual volume3.2x 20-day avg call volume
    IV shift30-day IV 41% → 48%

    Positioning skews toward near-term upside