→ DO NOT add to MU at current levels until Q2 CY2026 contract price direction is confirmed (early April TrendForce report). The 5.5x forward P/E is a cycle-peak signature, not a buy signal — identical to 2018 peak (5.6x).

→ If TrendForce Q2 contract forecast shows +10% QoQ or better: MU at $321 offers +40% to base case $450. Consider initiating position with tight stop at $280 (-13%).

→ If TrendForce Q2 contract forecast shows flat or negative: stand aside entirely. Wait for E revision cycle to complete before re-evaluating.

→ MU at $447 (~12x P/B): EXTREME CAUTION. Base case target $340 implies -24% downside. PW expected return approximately -25%. Even a beat may be sell-the-news given 4-quarter beat streak and Polymarket pricing 97.55% beat probability. Do NOT add. Consider trimming if Q3 guide disappoints.

→ AMAT: Read MU capex guidance closely. Tongluo acquisition + second facility could push total capex >$22B. If confirmed, validates AMAT's 'WFE super cycle' thesis. Lam (LRCX) has higher beta to memory capex.

→ LRCX: Highest beta play on MU capex. If capex guidance raised >$22B, Lam benefits most given ~50% DRAM etch share. But also highest risk if guidance is soft.

→ APLD: Most rate-sensitive position. If hawkish surprise → APLD could drop 5-10% on higher-for-longer narrative. Consider hedging with puts or reducing position size ahead of FOMC if conviction is low. The act-003 action item (APLD debt revaluation) should be completed before this event.

→ CRWV: Similar rate sensitivity as APLD. B+ credit means wider spread impact from hawkish surprise. No direct trade action — monitor CDS/bond prices post-FOMC.

→ NVDA/AMD: Moderate exposure. A hawkish surprise would compress multiples 5-8%, but secular AI demand thesis buffers the impact. No pre-positioning needed — these names recover quickly from rate-driven selloffs.

→ AMD: Consider trimming 3-5% before keynote if VR200 on-schedule probability stays >60%. MI450 window narrowing is the primary bear catalyst from GTC.

→ ANET: Asymmetric upside if Ultra Ethernet explicitly validated. Consider small add (2-3%) as a GTC-contingent position. Risk is InfiniBand narrative strengthening.

→ APLD: Hold — GTC is a demand signal event, not an APLD-specific catalyst. Strong demand language helps but is not trade-actionable.